As US President Donald Trump pushes to end the war in Ukraine and upend the order of the Middle East, one fellow world leader is at the heart of both initiatives: Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

MBS, as the oil-rich kingdom’s de facto ruler is known, is one of the few global power brokers to enjoy a close relationship with Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while most Arab heads of state see him as critical to tackling a more erratic Washington. That has positioned Riyadh as the most likely venue for a Trump-Putin summit on Ukraine, and puts Prince Mohammed at the heart of the regional response to Trump’s controversial proposals for war-ravaged Gaza.

The 39-year-old’s ties with Trump highlight his transformation from international pariah in the wake of the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 to potential peacemaker now. Being the US president’s preferred regional interlocutor boosts the domestic and global status of MBS, while complementing a long-held Saudi belief that regional stability will trigger foreign investment and help realize the kingdom’s ambitious economic plans.

Prince Mohammed believes Trump’s disruptive approach may be what’s needed to resolve conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, according to two people with knowledge of his thinking.

“The Trump-Putin meeting could be an opportunity for MBS to further his bona fides on the global stage,” said Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. “Riyadh may also hope that lending its support to this effort may grease the wheels for its preferences and goals related to Gaza.”

Trump said Wednesday he will “probably” meet Putin in Saudi Arabia in the “not-too-distant future,” after a call with the Russian leader set the ball rolling for talks to end the three-year conflict. The US leader pledged on the campaign trail to end the war that began with Moscow’s 2022 invasion, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has started to lay out concessions Ukraine may have to make.

The Saudi meeting, if it goes ahead, would bolster an image Riyadh has sought to cultivate as a convener for international summits. The kingdom has been a venue for high-level discussions about the two-state-solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the future of Syria and an end to the war in Sudan.

In hosting Trump and Putin, Riyadh would play a similar role to that of Singapore when the US President met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un there in his first term.

Saudi officials believe that positioning MBS as a peacemaker furthers the kingdom’s goal of becoming a middle-ranked global power that’s friends with everyone and pursues a foreign policy that’s mainly in the service of its economic interests and aspirations. The kingdom is investing trillions of dollars in a plan to develop the non-oil economy - dubbed Vision 2030 - and has an ambitious goal of quadrupling foreign direct investment to $100 billion by that year.

Saudi Arabia went out of its way to avoid condemning fellow OPEC+ member Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, just as Putin didn’t desert MBS over the killing of Khashoggi. Putin made a rare overseas visit to the kingdom in December 2023 to demonstrate he was still welcome in some parts of the world, though Prince Mohammed has boosted his credentials as a go between by welcoming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as well.

“Trump’s choice of Saudi Arabia as host intends to bolster the kingdom’s role on the world stage,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program. It “validates Riyadh’s approach to foreign affairs, which is based on diversification of the kingdom’s diplomatic relations.” Gaza Plan

If hosting the US and Russian presidents appears relatively straightforward, responding to Trump’s Gaza plan may prove more complex. The Saudi leader needs to balance his close relationship with Washington against the kingdom’s deep concerns about the initiative from an Arab and Muslim perspective.

Trump’s plan is for the US to take ownership of Gaza - devastated by 16 months of war between Israel and Hamas - and capitalize on the Palestinian territory’s Mediterranean coastline during the reconstruction process. That would involve moving the more than 2 million people who live there into Egypt and Jordan, Trump has said, a proposal critics say amounts to ethnic cleansing.

Amid widespread condemnation in the Middle East, the initial Saudi response was to reiterate demands for a Palestinian state and

reject the idea of displacing Gazans. Saudi and other Arab officials worry that an influx of refugees could threaten stability in both Egypt and Jordan, and thus the region as a whole.

Saudi officials believe the Arab world can’t afford to see either Egypt or Jordan fail and the kingdom, together with other regional powers, would step in with money and assistance if Trump withholds aid, according to one person with knowledge of the situation.

Still, Saudi Arabia is somewhat hopeful it won’t come to that, given MBS’s strong rapport with the US president, according to people with knowledge of the situation. It’s a relationship Prince Mohammed nurtured during Trump’s first term and also after he lost the 2020 election, the people said, asking not to be identified due to the subject’s sensitivity.

Yet the ability of MBS to find a compromise is far from a given, according to one Gulf official, and regional nations may not be open to funding Jordan and Egypt given more pressing financial priorities at home, the person said.

The Egyptian government is drawing up an alternative plan for Gaza, which King Abdullah and Egyptian President Fattah El-Sisi will discuss with MBS in a five-nation summit in Riyadh, according to two Arab officials. That is set to take place on Feb. 20, one of them said.

MBS has his own agenda. The Saudi leader has long coveted a defense, technology and nuclear cooperation agreement with the US, something that Washington has been open to should Riyadh agree to normalize relations with Israel.

“Trump is sending a message that he endorses Saudi Arabia’s quest for leadership in the region,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, senior fellow at the DC-based Washington Institute. “Given his very transactional approach to international politics, he seems to think he can get dividends out of it.”

With assistance from Chris Miller.

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