U.S.
Japan’s Ishiba will try to sell Trump on importance of alliances in Asia
The Washington Post
February 7, 2025
President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shake hands during a joint news conference at the White House on Feb. 10, 2017. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
SEOUL - Japanese leader Shinzo Abe was one of the few foreign leaders to forge a real friendship with President Donald Trump in his first term, often at the ear of the unpredictable U.S. president over rounds of golf. Now, Japan’s current prime minister wants to re-create some of that chemistry.
Shigeru Ishiba is set to meet with Trump on Friday in Washington - becoming the first Asian leader - and only the second foreign one - to do so in Trump’s second term.
The summit is expected to be a symbolic event to reinforce the security relationship between the two nations and give the two leaders a chance to build a rapport, which is particularly important for a U.S. president who values personal diplomacy.
The stakes are high for Ishiba: The United States is Japan’s most important security ally, and Tokyo is operating in an increasingly volatile region. Trump’s eagerness for a trade war could hurt the Japanese economy, and the Japanese government and business leaders want to avoid that fate.
But Ishiba is no Abe, and arrives in a weak position.
His approval rating has been sinking since he took office at the start of October. Later that month, his party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years - a stunning defeat that has weakened Ishiba’s standing and emboldened the opposition.
Plus, the two leaders’ personalities couldn’t be more different. Ishiba is known for his wonkiness and verbosity, and Japanese analysts are wondering how he will fare with a reality TV star turned president who has a propensity to use punchy catchphrases.
“Mr. Ishiba is so different from Mr. Abe or Mr. Trump,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a political science professor at Waseda University and a former lawmaker. “So what Japan is looking for is to at least establish a good - well, a so-so - chemistry and be able to open a communication path between the two leaders.”
Ishiba has reportedly held “Trump countermeasures meetings” with senior officials to strategize for the meeting, Japanese media have reported. Aides have coached Ishiba on how to make simple, easy-to-understand arguments that explain Japan’s contributions to the United States, according to local media.
Meanwhile, Ishiba plans to bring his own trump card - Sunao Takao, a senior Foreign Ministry official who previously served as Abe’s interpreter, whom Trump affectionately called “little prime minister.”
With Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in his first two weeks in office, Ishiba is expected to emphasize that Japan has been the biggest foreign investor in the United States since 2019, and these investments have helped create American jobs, analysts say.
Japanese officials hope Trump will reaffirm the United States’ security commitments to defend Japan, particularly given China’s military advances and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
“I’d like to confirm in my meeting with the president that Japan and the U.S. will cooperate in the economic and security fields,” Ishiba told reporters before he left Japan on Thursday, “that we will work together toward peace, and developing freedom and openness in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.”
Taiwan will loom large over their meeting, experts say. Ishiba, formerly the nation’s defense minister, is likely to convey to Trump the severity of Beijing’s threats against Taiwan and why the United States should protect Taiwan - something Trump has refused to directly address.
North Korea is also expected to be on the agenda, experts say. Japan was sidelined during Trump’s first term when he negotiated directly with Kim Jong Un. Trump’s recent comments calling North Korea a “nuclear power” have raised alarms in Tokyo and Seoul about his commitments to persuading Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, a long-held U.S. goal.
In return, Ishiba is expected to arrive in Washington with policy gifts, including a pledge to import more U.S. liquefied natural gas and to coordinate with the United States on developing artificial intelligence to counter China’s progress.
But Trump may have requests that will be tougher on the Japanese leader, especially given Ishiba’s precarious political standing at home. These may include further boosting defense spending or paying more to host U.S. troops in Japan.
“Mr. Ishiba’s political situation is very unstable,” Nakabayashi said. “So it is very difficult for Mr. Ishiba to promise something big. … For example, for defense budget to be increased more - that kind of thing cannot be absolutely promised, even if he promises it.”
The two nations have dramatically increased their cooperation in the past four years, in areas ranging from economic security to space. Former president Joe Biden and Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, shepherded the U.S.-Japan alliance to its strongest point.
Under Kishida, Japan made a dramatic shift to shed its postwar constraints and increased its defense budget to 2 percent of gross domestic product over five years, making it the third largest in the world.
Given Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, Japanese analysts say Ishiba’s goal is to hold on to these gains as much as possible.
“Now we’re in a stage of damage control,” said Ryo Sahashi, international politics expert at the University of Tokyo. “We have done a lot the last four years with President Biden. … What the government wants is to maintain this level, or at least not have a sharp downward trend.”
Abe’s extraordinary success in cozying up to Trump through flattery, attention and golf assuaged Tokyo’s anxiety during Trump’s first term.
But Ishiba is a longtime critic of Abe, as well as the complete opposite in personality and style.
“We’ve moved from an era of U.S.-Japan institutional relations to more of a personal relationship point of view,” said Joshua Walker, president and chief executive of the New York-based Japan Society. The attention will be on how Ishiba solidifies a personal connection with Trump, he said. “Obviously, Abe did it magnificently, and I think Ishiba has a really high bar.”
Abe was a blue-blooded and experienced statesman from a family of prominent Japanese politicians and a skilled communicator.
He flew 6,700 miles days after the 2016 election to reaffirm the bilateral alliance with the president-elect at Trump Tower, presenting him with a $3,800 gold-plated golf driver.
Abe was assassinated in 2022. In a sign of the U.S. leader’s lasting affinity with Abe, the Trumps hosted Abe’s widow, Akie, at Mar-a-Lago in December.
In contrast, Ishiba hails from rural Tottori, Japan’s least populated prefecture, is cerebral and introverted, and is an avid collector of avid warships and trains. Ishiba only briefly played golf in high school.
Following Abe’s 2016 playbook, Ishiba sought to meet with Trump in November. He was turned down by Trump officials, who said the president-elect would not meet with world leaders before inauguration, but he had a five-minute call with Trump and confirmed the two nations will work closer to bring the alliance to “new heights,” according to the official Japanese readout.
This week’s summit underscores the long-standing alliance between the two nations and its importance in the Indo-Pacific region, said Sheila Smith, a Japan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The two leaders will look to emphasize that “it’s an important alliance to both partners, this is an alliance that’s going to be at the top of the priority list going forward,” she said.