Back in 2016, it was evident that Russian President Vladimir Putin was Team Trump. Top Kremlin officials cracked open champagne bottles in the early hours of Nov. 9 as the businessman-turned-politician emerged as the surprise victor in the U.S. election.

When it comes to determining where the Russian leader stands today, there is no easy answer. U.S. intelligence seems certain he wants Donald Trump back in the White House. Putin, meanwhile is reveling in making cryptic comments that often double as needling observations: such as when he praised Joe Biden for his age and experience, or now Kamala Harris for her “infectious” laughter.

The view that has crystallized in Moscow, according to five people familiar with the latest thinking in the Kremlin, is that there really isn’t much reason to raise a glass this time around if Trump returns.

If the Kremlin could have picked their ideal scenario, it would have been another Biden term because he was more predictable and easier to read, two of the people said. That means that if there were any efforts toward ending Russia’s war on Ukraine, it would be simpler with Biden than with someone with a history of tearing up deals.

Russia doesn’t care so much who wins, but that doesn’t mean it’s indifferent to the outcome. For example, if Harris were to win narrowly, and Trump contested the result, the ensuing paralysis would likely be welcome news.

The idea that Russia could meddle with Western democracies via social media was surprising in 2016 when, according to a U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee report, two Kremlin-directed operatives who spread misinformation during the U.S. election uncorked the bubbly and toasted themselves as they celebrated the result: “We made America great!”

Now, it’s standard practice. The methods have become more sophisticated, harder to pin down — as have the desired outcomes by those trying to sway results.

While there is no love lost for Harris, the assessment of how beneficial Trump’s four years were for Moscow is mixed. He issued a slew of sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs and enterprises as well as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe.

With tensions between the Cold War rivals at their worst point in decades amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, whoever occupies the Oval Office is unlikely to help warm things up much, the people said.

“Who is better or worse is hard to say,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank which advises the Kremlin. “We may end up remembering Biden with fondness because he was very cautious and constantly assessed the risks.”

Even after Putin triggered the deepest rift with the U.S. since the Cold War by attacking Ukraine in February 2022, Biden still kept limits on the types of weapons supplied to Kyiv and their use inside Russian territory.

Still, Putin has repeatedly resorted to nuclear saber-rattling in the conflict, drawing condemnation from the U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies as well as friendly nations including China and India. How that rhetoric will play out with Trump will be much more difficult to gauge.

One day after the U.S. publicly accused Russia of interfering in the 2024 campaign, Putin was in a teasing mood and not even trying to be taken at his word.

Trump imposed “so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia, as no president before him had introduced,” he said with a smirk. “Since everything is fine with Ms. Harris, maybe she will hold off on those kind of actions.”

Typically, when Putin decides to opine on U.S. politics, it is aimed at stoking divisions. One such instance was when he sided with Trump and defended Jan. 6 rioters in a 2021 interview with NBC, saying “they came to the Congress with political demands” and “didn’t go there to rob.”

Trump underscored the duplicity in Kremlin praise when he responded to Putin saying he wanted to see Harris win. “I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favor,” the Republican candidate said.

When asked if the Russian leader had been joking with his comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state media Friday that “those abroad who are interested should try to understand this, let’s not take away this opportunity from them.”

With no end in sight to the war, the reality is that whoever wins in November has little incentive to prioritize improving relations with Moscow. Harris has steered clear of specific promises but has adopted the Biden line of wanting to “stand strong” with Ukraine.

Harris “is likely to continue with the strategic caution that was characteristic for President Joe Biden,” said Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The vice president is seen as less experienced in foreign policy than Biden and expected to lean heavily on the advice from top officials and diplomatic veterans such as Philip Gordon. Her more mainstream background could make her a safer pair of hands than say Trump, the people familiar with the Kremlin’s perspective said.

Meanwhile, the approach a second Trump administration would take to the war also remains uncertain. Trump swears he has a “guaranteed” plan to end the war in Ukraine and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, has said he doesn’t “really care what happens to Ukraine.”

But as Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the Russian National Defense magazine, sums it up, the biggest problem with Trump “is his impulsiveness and total unpredictability.”

Either way, there is an almost obsessive focus on the U.S. election, noted Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin. Forecasts of the result and scenarios under each candidate are updated constantly.

“This election is super-important as it could cause major upheavals,” he said, adding that every week, reports on the U.S. campaign are churned out by the Kremlin’s staff, the Foreign Ministry — and operatives at the main spy agencies.

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