President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump face off during their presidential debate at CNN, on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS)
DALLAS — There they stood. Two men perched at podiums in an audience-free television studio looking to win the first of two presidential debates. They couldn’t have had a clue how extraordinary the June 27 night would be.
Neither did most Americans.
Donald Trump, 78, entered with 34 felony convictions a month after a Manhattan jury found him guilty of falsifying business records involving payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Biden, 81, was dogged by concerns he was too old and too much in decline for another term.
“I really didn’t know what to expect, but certainly in retrospect it turned into the most important and impactful presidential debate of all time, and I don’t think anybody could have predicted that,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate for the University of Michigan’s debate program and co-author of the book Debating the Donald.
Biden’s hoarse-voiced, halting performance was only the first in a series of pivotal events that would reshape history and alter the nation’s political landscape over the next 30 days.
Major court rulings on Trump-involved cases redefined the limits of presidential power and tossed out one of the criminal cases against the Republican standard bearer.
Bullets from a would-be assassin’s rifle shifted the campaign’s narrative July 13 as photos of Trump, blood on his face and fist in the air, were followed two days later by the selection of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate at a Republican National Convention in Milwaukee that showcased GOP unity.
Biden spent most of July trying to rebound from his poor debate performance, but carefully picked public appearances, two major television interviews and a rare news conference failed to quiet Democratic discontent and quell concerns he couldn’t beat the nearly martyred Trump.
Three days after Trump accepted the GOP nomination, a COVID-stricken Biden bowed to rising pressure and dropped from the race. About a half-hour later, as speculation ramped up about a Democratic free-for-all for the nomination, Biden endorsed his vice president, giving Kamala Harris the inside track to the top of the ticket.
“Any one of these things that happened over the past few weeks would be a story of the decade,” said Mark Davis, a conservative talk radio host based in North Texas. “To have them all crammed together here in one midsummer stretch is unprecedented.”
Thomas Gray, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at Dallas, said Americans haven’t been able to properly digest the sheer amount of historic events over the past 30 days.
“The most striking thing is how an abundance of issues often robs each of the weight they might normally have,” he said in an email. “A former president was nearly killed on live TV and the issue has already fallen off the front page. President Biden dropped out … and we are already on to ‘Harris for President.’ “
There’s a good chance that without the June debate, Biden would still be the presumptive Democratic nominee, Kall said.
“We never had a debate in June. … It just is kind of funny to think what would happen if President Biden had that debate performance in September,” Kall said. “A September debate would not have allowed for much of what transpired in the last few weeks.”
Many of the past month’s events left Trump in a stronger position, but Election Day is Nov. 5, leaving time for the dynamic to shift.
“Trump was really riding high and some fortunate political things kind of broke his way,” Kall said. “It just kind of shows that politics is so cyclical, even when you experience some good fortune, eventually things even out a little bit.”
Legal cases tossed in limbo
Trump’s legal entanglements have shaped much of the 2024 presidential race.
Just before Trump kicked off his campaign with a 2023 rally in Waco, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg signaled he would charge Trump in a hush money case involving payments to Daniels, who said she had an extramarital affair with Trump in 2006.
The Manhattan indictment, which led to 34 convictions in late May, was followed by federal cases from Special Prosecutor Jack Smith related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and classified documents recovered from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Smith had hoped to get the federal cases in front of a jury before the November election.
That possibility vanished four days after the Trump-Biden debate. The U.S. Supreme Court, ruling on Trump’s bid to dismiss charges that he conspired to overturn his 2020 election loss, said presidents cannot be prosecuted for official acts taken while in office. Justices directed lower courts to determine if Trump’s actions were immune from prosecution.
Two weeks later, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon tossed out the classified documents case, ruling Smith was improperly appointed as prosecutor. The Justice Department quickly filed a notice of appeal.
Trump’s lawyers asked the Manhattan judge to dismiss his convictions in the hush money case based on the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. Trump is scheduled to be sentenced Sept. 18.
Some analysts say the July court rulings helped Trump’s campaign.
“It definitely gave Trump some momentum and cleared a few hurdles for him and made the news cycles a little better for him,” said Republican political consultant Brendan Steinhauser. “We obviously still have the sentencing happening in September, but in general he’s in a lot stronger position than he was just a few weeks ago.”
Davis agreed.
“What’s happening is the narratives that people were expecting to be on the plate on Nov. 5 are just falling by the wayside,” he said. “People expected that the court cases would damage Trump among his base, would damage his poll numbers and damage his fundraising. Not only has that not happened, the cases themselves are collapsing.”
Assassination attempt
The July 13 assassination attempt sent shock waves still being felt in the presidential campaign.
A would-be assassin fired eight shots in Trump’s direction at an outdoor rally in Pennsylvania, killing a spectator, injuring two others and leaving Trump with an injured ear.
After the shooter was killed by the Secret Service, Trump rose from the floor, fist clenched, and shouted, “Fight, fight, fight.”
The image provided a thematic element that was on display at the Republican convention a few days later, with delegates wearing bandages on their ears in solidarity as Trump was acknowledged as his party’s undisputed leader.
Denton County Commissioner Dianne Edmondson, a longtime Republican Party activist, said the image of a resolute Trump after the shooting galvanized his supporters and most Americans.
“That was one for the record,” she said. “Biden does not have the image of a strong leader. For Trump to get up and say, ‘Fight, fight, fight’ just solidified his position as a strong leader, especially in contrast to Biden.”
At his much-anticipated convention speech, Trump said the assassination attempt changed him.
“I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” he said.
“Yes, you are,” delegates responded.
Trump called for unity.
“This election should be about the issues facing our country and how to make America successful, safe, free and great again,” he said. “In an age when our politics too often divide us, now is the time to remember that we are all fellow citizens. We are one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”
Trump quickly returned to familiar themes, including a pledge to mount the largest deportation of undocumented immigrants in American history and dismissing former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as “crazy.”
Democrats say Trump’s return to divisiveness left an opening.
“If Donald Trump had given a 10-minute speech and honored those that were killed or hurt during his rally and talked about how the moment changed him, I don’t know that anything that happened since then would have mattered. He would be tough to beat,” said Ron Kirk, a former U.S. trade representative under President Barack Obama.
“But he couldn’t do it. He’s incapable of it,” Kirk said. “He had the angry, grievance-filled, self-centered approach he’s had his whole life.”
Davis said the bulk of Trump’s speech was not unlike a campaign rally — Democrats hated it, Republicans liked it.
“We did see a different speech for about 20 minutes,” Davis said. “But it didn’t take long for it to turn into the kind of speech that you would get at a Trump rally — pretty long, pretty meandering and a multi-issue visit through every way in which he thinks his presidency would be better than Biden. The entire thing was vintage Trump.”
The fall of Biden, rise of Harris
As Trump gained momentum after the debate, Biden was on a rapid fade.
In the hours after his disastrous performance, he dropped by a post-debate rally and an Atlanta Waffle House. First Lady Jill Biden wore a colorful dress bearing the word “vote.”
They seemed oblivious to what occurred on the debate stage, and many Democrats argued Biden was still the best candidate. Supporters also pointed to a number of fabrications Trump made during the debate, but media scrutiny focused on Biden.
On July 2, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, broke the dam, becoming the first House Democrat to call on Biden to step aside, saying it was “the best hope of saving our democracy from an authoritarian takeover by a criminal and his gang.”
Biden resisted and focused on showing his fitness for office, making remarks at a July 9 NATO summit in Washington and pledging to stay in the race at a news conference two days later.
There were gaffes as Biden called Harris “Vice President Trump” and referred to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who invaded Zelenskyy’s country, launching an ongoing war.
Democratic donors became increasingly worried and the party’s top leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Pelosi, privately urged Biden to withdraw. Former President Barack Obama also expressed concern about Biden’s viability, and a growing number of Democrats publicly asked Biden to “pass the torch.”
On July 17, the White House announced Biden had COVID and would begin to isolate, forcing him to cancel campaign events.
On July 21, hours after campaign surrogates insisted he was in the race to stay, Biden ended his campaign and soon endorsed Harris.
Biden’s announcement shook the political landscape.
No presumptive nominee had dropped out that close to an election. In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson — burdened by the unpopular Vietnam war and poor approval ratings — told a television audience March 31 he would not seek or accept his party’s nomination.
Before Johnson, the only incumbents to pass on a second term were Harry Truman, Calvin Coolidge, James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford Hayes and Theodore Roosevelt.
Harris quickly consolidated support. Unofficial counts show she has the support of enough delegates to win the nomination, apparently avoiding a contested or brokered convention, which convenes Aug.19-22 in Chicago.
“We’ve got a chance with both the excitement and the legitimate enthusiasm Harris is bringing,” said Kirk, who has known Harris for years.
Republicans are attacking her record, focusing on problems at the southern border. In 2021, Biden directed Harris to address foreign issues that contribute to high migration rates.
Texas Republican Party Chairman Abraham George said Harris failed at improving the situation.
“What a mess she’s made,” George said. “Kamala Harris cannot beat Donald Trump.”
The road to November
The emergence of Harris has reset the race for president.
In her first day as a presidential candidate, Harris raised more than $81 million, according to the campaign.
A Sunday night Zoom call with at least 44,000 Black women, sponsored by a collective called Win With Black Women, raised $1.5 million in three hours. The next day, thousands of Black men held a similar event, raising $1 million for the Harris campaign.
Harris’ fast start has helped soothe Democratic doubts over her ability to win a presidential campaign, particularly after she dropped out of the 2020 primary before it reached the first-in-the-nation contest in Iowa.
“She has really shut down a lot of doubters, even inside of the party,” said Jane Hamilton, a Dallas Democrat who directed Biden’s 2020 Texas primary campaign. She noted the money raised by Harris is “the largest amount of money raised in a 24-hour span in presidential history.”
Trump, who came out of his party’s convention with momentum, has criticized Democrats for switching candidates and said he’s prepared to run against Harris by linking her to Biden’s policies.
Gray, the UT Dallas political scientist, said Harris’ presidential prospects rely on “how much will voters allow her to be a different candidate” than Biden.
“It’s possible that they will associate her strongly with the policies of the Biden Administration (good and bad) and she will struggle to change the overall nature of the race,” Gray wrote in an email.
“All this uncertainty makes the presidential election more competitive, because things were trending very firmly against President Biden, but now different issues may come to the front page and shake up the race,” Gray added.
©2024 The Dallas Morning News.
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