DALLAS (Tribune News Service) — Whether it’s busing thousands of migrants to Democratic-run cities or ordering 100 miles of razor wire strung along the Rio Grande, an aggressive focus on immigration has thrust Texas Gov. Greg Abbott onto the national political stage.

Donald Trump, highlighting immigration in his bid for a second White House term, has declared Abbott to be on his short list for vice president. Others see Abbott in line for a Trump Cabinet position, such as attorney general.

Last week, Time magazine named the governor to its 2024 list of the 100 most influential people in the world, calling Abbott “one of his party’s most persuasive pitchmen” who “pushes the boundaries” on state enforcement of immigration laws.

The Republican Party of New York, counting on Abbott’s rising popularity, recently booked the governor for a keynote speech at its April 4 annual fundraiser in Manhattan.

Abbott’s national impact pales in comparison to what he’s done to improve his already stout standing in Texas, where he’s influencing elections in hopes of setting himself up for future legislative victories.

“He’s been wildly successful,” said Plano-based political consultant Vinny Minchillo, who worked on the presidential campaigns of U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah. “Right now if you ask people to name two governors of states, it would be Gavin Newsom (of California) and Greg Abbott.”

Abbott succeeds in politics because he understands what his core supporters want, analysts said.

“He’s embraced the issues that hit a chord with conservative voters,” said Republican political consultant Matthew Langston. “That’s why his political capital has grown enormously over the last two to three years.”

Abbott’s rising stature gives him opportunities that were not previously available, Langston said.

“He could go to D.C. He could remain in Texas,” Langston said. “He’s given himself options.”

Democrats describe Abbott as selfish and diabolical, saying he uses people and resources to push his views on border security. They also point to missteps, like the state’s unreadiness for the deadly 2021 winter storms and Abbott’s initial praise for the law enforcement response to the 2022 killings at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde.

Though Texas is an economic powerhouse, Abbott’s opponents point out the state leads the nation in the percentage of its population that lacks health insurance. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 16.6% of Texans don’t have health insurance.

“He’s spent billions of dollars in order to engage in this border security effort that he pretends will make a difference, when it’s absolutely clear that what he’s doing does nothing to stem the tide of immigration coming into the country,” said Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa. “It is really just for show and proves Greg Abbott only cares about one person. That’s Greg Abbott.”

Another Democrat said Abbott is popular with Republicans but risks hurting himself with other Texans who could be turned off by the hard-right conservatism.

“Abbott has raised his standing within the Republican Party because their party is totally ideological, doesn’t care about any policy, doesn’t care about jobs, economy or anything like that,” said Democratic strategist Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project research group.

“The real question is not, Has he improved himself with Republicans? Yes, he has,” Angle said. “But has he really harmed himself by alienating all those people in the center, some fair-minded Republicans, some independents, and also even with some business-oriented Democrats?”

Abbott, first elected in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022, is stronger than he was at the end of his previous term, many analysts say. Emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2021 Texas winter storm, Abbott saw a slight dip in some polls and faced primary challenges from former state Sen. Don Huffines and former Texas Republican Party Chairman Allen West, though he easily won the 2022 race.

His rise coincided with continued criticism of the Biden administration’s border security efforts.

“His base is sending pretty clear messages on issues that he’s claimed and made his,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas. “He makes the most of his moments.”

Larry Sabato, founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, cautions that being popular in activist circles doesn’t always translate into popularity with the majority of Americans.

“He’s not well-known with the U.S. population, and that’s not a criticism of him. I don’t think anybody can name the governor of New York or California beyond the political community,” Sabato said.

Abbott’s top aides say he’s unconcerned about his rising national profile.

“His focus is on Texas and running for reelection in ‘26,” said Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political strategist. “He’s always flattered to have his name discussed, I’m sure.”

Abbott spokesperson Renae Eze said the governor will continue to focus on securing the southern border.

“This border crisis will continue until we have a President who prioritizes the rights and safety of American citizens and enforces federal immigration laws,” Eze said in a text message. “Instead of complaining about Texas’ historic efforts to respond to this ongoing border crisis and protect our country, Democrats should call on their party leader to do his job and secure the border – something the President continues refusing to do.”

Migrants helped fuel Abbott’s rise

Carney and a spokesperson for Abbott said the idea for his plan to bus migrants to cities outside of Texas arose during border town meetings with community leaders.

At a roundtable discussion two years ago in Uvalde, a man frustrated over the high flow of migrants at the southern border urged Abbott to transport migrants to Dallas. Abbott replied that instead of sending migrants to other Texas cities, he would bus them to sanctuary cities controlled by Democrats, Carney said.

In 2022, Abbott began busing migrants to Washington, D.C., New York, Chicago and other cities. Officials in those places and migrant advocates accused Abbott of using migrants as political pawns.

He stayed the course, and soon elected leaders in New York and Chicago were complaining about the impact of the migrants in their cities, and in some cases urging the Biden administration to fix the problem at the border.

“He basically turned the national conversation on its head,” Carney said. “We were being called ignorant, racist and sexist. I don’t think the criticism from the left bothered him in the slightest, because they were basically ignorant about the situation.”

Angle, the Democratic strategist, said Abbott’s shuttling of migrants to cities outside of Texas is “all performative.”

“Not anything at the border is safer as a result of his actions,” Angle said. “It was all just Greg Abbott playing to the most mean-spirited, worst instincts in human nature.”

Angle conceded Democrats have had trouble with the border security issue.

“The difficulty for Democrats is not to sound, when you criticize Abbott, as though you are not concerned about the circumstances and the border,” Angle said. “It’s not that there isn’t or hasn’t been a problem at the border; it’s that he’s exploited it to make it worse.”

Eze said that the state’s border security effort known as Operation Lone Star has resulted in the apprehension of “over 508,000 illegal immigrants,” the arrest of more than 41,900 criminals with more than 37,600 felony charges. She said the state has transported more than 113,000 migrants to other cities.

“Since day one in office, President (Joe) Biden has done everything possible to eliminate every successful border security policy and replace them with his reckless open border policies – and Governor Abbott has stepped up in response to protect Texans and Americans,” Eze said.

Texas and the Biden administration are in legal fights over the state’s authority to place a line of migrant-deterring buoys in the Rio Grande, federal agents’ authority to cut or remove the state’s razor wire barriers, and a Texas law giving the state a role in arresting and deporting unauthorized migrants. Those issues are likely destined for the Supreme Court.

In January, New York sued 17 bus companies hired to transport migrants from Texas to the city, arguing they were acting in bad faith by dropping off more than 33,000 people without paying for their continued care, as required by state law.

Abbott’s invitation to speak at the New York GOP’s fundraising gala followed, reigniting a feud with New York Mayor Eric Adams, who has described the Texas governor as a “madman” and “morally bankrupt.”

Washington, not New York, was the original destination for buses from Texas, Abbott said at the event this month.

“When we began the busing operation, it was going to one location. It was there on purpose because, remember, up to this time, neither Joe Biden nor the border czar had actually been to the border to see the chaos they had caused,” he said.

“We were sending them only to Washington, D.C., and then quite literally out of nowhere Mayor Adams starts criticizing me for sending them to New York City,” Abbott added. “So after a while, I figured, gosh, if I’m gonna get the criticism, I’m gonna get the credit.”

Adams lashed out at Abbott during his New York visit, suggesting he stay overnight in a city shelter that serves migrants “so he can see what he has created and understand we are treating people with dignity and respect that he should have shown.”

Republicans say Adams is losing his public feud with Abbott.

“Even Democrats are now crying out for help in a situation where they’ve been very complacent,” Langston said. “Abbott has forced debate on an issue that the Democratic Party is losing on.”

Domingo Garcia, president of the League of United Latin American Citizens, said Abbott’s national rise has come at the expense of migrants.

“It’s the politics of hate and scapegoating and using immigrants as political piñatas to put his name on the national political stage,” Garcia said.

Improving clout in Texas

Abbott has strengthened his position in Texas, where he’s as popular as ever with Republican voters who dominate statewide elections.

In the March 5 GOP primary, he endorsed 14 challengers against Texas House incumbents who last year opposed Abbott’s school choice proposal. Seven of his candidates won, two lost and five forced incumbents into a May 28 runoff,

Langston said Abbott’s success in challenging recalcitrant incumbents will give him more clout over the Legislature and improve the odds of passing a bill allowing parents to use public money for private school tuition — an Abbott priority that has been blocked for years in the House.

“It helps Abbott tremendously because it will be in the back of every legislator’s mind when they’re taking votes,” Langston said. “What does Greg Abbott think?”

As talk of Abbott’s national ambitions persists, Carney insists Abbott is focused on Texas and has several other legislative goals, including additional fixes to the electric grid.

Abbott’s other major goal is abolishing property taxes that fund public schools. Carney said Abbott will push for that during the next session. Schools would still be funded, but not through property taxes, Carney said.

National stage or Texas history?

Abbott could make history by staying in the governor’s office. Winning another four-year term in 2026 would allow him to break Rick Perry’s record of 14 years as Texas governor.

“In Texas, we talk about the Big Three — governor, lieutenant governor and speaker of the House. Include the attorney general and you have the Big Four,” said Minchillo, the GOP consultant. “Abbott is not in that group anymore. He’s now a level above Patrick and the others. He’s in a whole different game.”

“You have to ask yourself, is there a better job than being the governor of the state of Texas?” Minchillo asked. “I don’t think so.”

Henson said Abbott’s tenure has resulted in the governor being more influential because he has appointed numerous board members and commissioners who affect state policy, much like Perry did during his tenure. Abbott has been successful in pushing his legislative agenda in an era where GOP politics has proved volatile.

“Whenever he decides to leave, he’s already strengthened that office in a way that is going to have a lot of institutional power,” Henson said.

Henson said rumors of Abbott running for president or vice president have been overblown.

Abbott was expected to explore a presidential run when the 2023 legislative session ended. That timetable was impractical, given four special sessions that followed and the number of candidates — including Trump, whom Abbott has endorsed — already in the GOP contest, Henson said.

“He has used the talk of him being more of a national figure to his advantage, even though that’s always been something of a mirage,” Henson said, adding such discussions help with raising money and getting invited to well-publicized events outside of Texas.

Texas Democrats say the national publicity has gone to Abbott’s head.

“He’s such an egomaniac that he really believes he can be president one day,” Hinojosa said.

The last two Texas governors — George W. Bush and Perry — have run for president, with Bush winning two terms in the White House.

Sabato, the University of Virginia political scientist, said Abbott may find himself in a position to follow those Texans because most high-profile Texas leaders at least consider running for president.

“He could win another term as governor and then start running for president immediately in 2026 for 2028,” Sabato said.

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