(Tribune News Service) — The battle between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Mike Johnson over Ukraine aid and immigration policy is coming to a head this week as Congress races to avert a Jan. 20 partial lapse in government funding.

Leaders in both parties, concerned about the political fallout from a shutdown, announced the contours of a spending plan Sunday that includes neither $61 billion in aid to Ukraine that Biden has sought nor stringent border protections that conservatives demand.

Ukraine is approaching the third year in its war against Russia and is now at its greatest peril of losing U.S. financial support. And a compromise on immigration, with Republicans demanding a once-in-generation overhaul of policies in exchange for their support on Ukraine, remains elusive.

Without a government spending bill to force Ukraine and a border package through Congress quickly, the two now risk languishing indefinitely.

Biden and Johnson, strangers until Johnson won the speakership in November, and their Senate allies are negotiating all of this against the backdrop of a 2024 election in which the worsening U.S. migrant crisis and Donald Trump’s America First isolationism will be dominant themes.

As the congressional spending panels pivot to the laborious work of writing and passing bills based on the spending agreement, the political standoff over border policy and Ukraine takes center stage.

It’s a career-defining moment for Johnson, who has had a shaky hold on his new job in a narrow Republican majority, and for Biden, whose lagging poll numbers threaten his likely rematch against Trump. And, as Senate talks drag on, it’s increasingly likely the negotiations will come down to the speaker and the president.

As Congress returns from a holiday break, Johnson still aims to use Ukraine aid to squeeze Biden into accepting immigration changes. Falling short on immigration — particularly as ultra-conservatives loudly opposed Sunday’s spending deal — could set Johnson up for an ignominious ouster by a handful of renegades.

Biden has his own political risks. A deal with Johnson could defuse one of his greatest weaknesses: a record surge of migrants that has strained services in Democratic strongholds like northern cities. If Biden goes too far, though, he risks alienating party progressives, something he can’t afford.

Biden’s approval rating in the latest Gallup poll was 39%, the lowest at this point for any president seeking reelection since at least Jimmy Carter. A CBS News/YouGov poll out Sunday found that 63% of those surveyed want Biden to take tougher measures at the border.

Border talks

Johnson is weighing direct talks with Biden as soon as this week as Senate border talks drag, according to a person familiar with the matter. But the White House has instead urged Johnson to weigh in on the slow-moving bipartisan Senate talks.

Those talks may yield a deal as soon as this week, but the provisions are unlikely to go as far as House Republicans have demanded.

Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma said Sunday that he and other negotiators aim to release a proposal this week, in time for Congress to attach a Ukraine and border bill to the must-pass Jan. 20 shutdown bill.

Lankford, however, seemed to acknowledge the deal wouldn’t go as far as House Republicans want.

“Let’s go get this, bank this, and then keep going for more,” Lankford said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Senate Democrats say they’re willing to make some immigration changes, including tightening the persecution standard under which migrants can claim asylum. And they’re open to creating an expedited process to deport those apprehended crossing the border illegally. Republicans want further changes to accelerate the deportation of migrants already in the U.S., something Democrats and progressive groups oppose.

Spending deal

Johnson and congressional Democrats on Sunday announced a deal on a $1.59 trillion spending cap, with $70 billion in adjustments to allow greater domestic agency spending, and $16 billion in new immediate claw-backs of previous funding.

But conservatives, frustrated with the pace of border talks, are demanding Johnson hold up all government funding to pressure Biden on the border. They’re unlikely to ease those demands in the wake of the Sunday spending agreement.

The ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus called the spending deal a “total failure.”

“It’s even worse than we thought,” the hardline group said on X. “Don’t believe the spin.”

During a trip to the border last week, Johnson didn’t endorse using the shutdown bill to demand border changes, but other Republicans did.

“This is a time to take steps to hold the line,” Rep. Beth Van Duyne, a Texas Republican, said.

One House Republican who is tied to the negotiations predicts that Johnson ultimately will accede to those demands, forcing at least a short-term shuttering of government agencies.

The White House has criticized House Republicans for threatening a shutdown that could derail an economic recovery and easing inflation.

“President Biden continues to fight for more jobs, more economic growth, and lower costs, while extreme Republicans agitate for a MAGAnomics agenda of government shutdowns and tax giveaways for the rich,” spokesman Andrew Bates said.

Only adding to the political tension is a House impeachment hearing Wednesday against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who is the administration’s negotiator in the Senate border talks.

With assistance from Gregory Korte and Josh Wingrove.

©2024 Bloomberg News.

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previous coverage

• Speaker Johnson weighs talks with Biden on border as Senate stalls