U.S. Army infantrymen assigned to Task Force Armadillo patrol with a Syrian Free Army soldier in al-Tanf, Syria, on Jan. 11, 2025. The U.S. has a force of 2,000 service members deployed to Syria, but President Donald Trump's plans for the mission are under review. (Trenton Pallone/U.S. Army)
A withdrawal of American troops from Syria raises the risk of thousands of ISIS fighters escaping from sprawling prison camps guarded by Kurdish forces, analysts and former defense officials say as the White House reviews its security posture in the Middle East.
Since at least 2019, American troops leading Operation Inherent Resolve have trained members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces as security guards who oversee the “literal and figurative ‘ISIS army’ in detention,” as U.S. Central Command described it in January.
Besides the 9,000 fighters kept in 22 jails across Syria, the U.S. trains SDF guards to secure the displaced persons camp in Al-Hol and Roj, where ISIS is trying to recruit many of the more than 42,000 detainees who have lived for years in makeshift tents, often without adequate sanitation and limited access to water.
But security guard training has progressed slowly. The SDF is frequently pulled into skirmishes with Iranian-backed militia groups, local Arab tribes and Turkish fighters, according to reports from the Defense Department inspector general’s office.
Syrian Democratic Forces trainees practice prisoner restraint techniques in northern Hasakah province, Syria, in May 2023. U.S. and coalition troops based in Syria train SDF personnel to guard large prison camps holding Islamic State fighters. (Defense Visual Information Distribution Service)
Security concerns persist at the camps, including weapons smuggling. Seizing on the instability in the region, ISIS recently renewed its campaign to break fighters and their families out of the detention centers, the inspector general said.
President Donald Trump has vowed to keep the U.S. out of foreign entanglements, and following the ouster of the Assad regime, has repeatedly said the U.S. should not get involved in Syria.
NBC News reported last month that the Defense Department is developing plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria, though the White House has not confirmed any decisions.
Few security analysts, if any, are calling for U.S. military involvement in Damascus and its new political order after a combined 53 years of rule by former President Bashar Assad and his father, Hafez Assad.
Some worry, however, that an end to the U.S. military presence in remote areas could make ISIS prison breaks and camp raids easier to pull off, potentially unleashing a new wave of fighters.
The U.S. troops help prevent ISIS from exploiting the power vacuum that has followed the Assad regime’s fall, said Amy Holmes, a research professor of international affairs at George Washington University who visits the detention centers regularly.
“If the U.S. were to withdraw, it would be a huge security risk for not just Syria but the entire region,” said Holmes, who added that ISIS has continued launching attacks and is believed to retain sleeper cells.
A Syrian Democratic Forces detention facility guard trainer, left, shakes hands with a coalition service member during a training course graduation in the Shaddadi region of Syria in March 2023. Coalition forces advise and assist the SDF with training to guard Islamic State prisoners. (Nicholas J. De La Pena/U.S. Army)
Quarterly IG reports detail the challenges faced by Operation Inherent Resolve personnel. The U.S.-led task force has often reported struggles in training SDF guards, citing regular bombardments from Turkey, a NATO ally that views the SDF as an offshoot of a terrorist group.
Shortly after rebel forces took Damascus in December, Turkish forces increased their assaults on the SDF. The U.S., concerned about the stability of the camps, stepped in to broker a ceasefire deal, and has been calling for a path to de-escalation between the groups.
The SDF views U.S. forces in the region as a deterrent to Turkish attacks and in the past has asked for more U.S. personnel, the IG reports say.
However, Trump has long been reluctant to bulk up forces in the country. During his first term, in 2018, Trump proposed the removal of troops from Syria — immediately raising concerns about an ISIS resurgence and prompting the resignation of then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
Trump eventually reconsidered — leaving a small contingent of troops in the country that defense experts say is critical to keeping the Islamic State from reconstituting.
“I think it’s no surprise that the previous Trump administration had a real proclivity for getting out of these areas,” said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, former head of U.S. Central Command. “But the fact of the matter is our presence there solidifies the SDF, adds to the stability, and as a result, is preventing ISIS from coming back.”
U.S.-trained prison guards in northeastern Syria stand in position with newly equipped riot gear in March 2020. Islamic State fighters held in prison camps guarded by Kurdish forces could find it easier to escape if American troops leave Syria, analysts and former defense officials say. ( Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve)
The U.S. is also still moving forward with a two-part drawdown of troops from neighboring Iraq, with plans to remove some of the 2,500 service members stationed there by September, while maintaining relations with Iraqi leadership in the fight against ISIS.
The fall of the former Syrian regime has resulted in a tectonic geopolitical shift in the region. Although Assad’s ouster comes as a major blow to his allies in Iran and Russia, analysts say the U.S. may want to recalibrate its position in the coming months, especially when it comes to moving troops.
“Any entity, any government, including ours, that believes that security and stability in the Middle East is good for our national security should take a knee and reevaluate whatever plans existed before,” said Dana Stroul, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the Pentagon’s former top civilian official with responsibility for the Middle East.
