Although last month’s limited ceasefire covered only energy infrastructure, it was described by Trump’s negotiating team as an important step on the path to a full ceasefire before peace talks. It has been widely criticized, however, for its vagueness and for the contradictions between Russia, Ukraine and the United States on key aspects - including the date it took effect and what was covered. (Ed Ram/The Washington Post )
Russia was poised Wednesday to announce whether it would resume full-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure following a 30-day pause that Moscow insists ends imminently, days after President Donald Trump’s envoy claimed there would soon be a deal to end the war.
Several top Moscow officials this week have downplayed hopes of an agreement anytime soon and reasserted Russia’s hard-line maximalist demands to end the war. The Russian stance has fueled doubts about the U.S. negotiating strategy and highlighting Trump’s reluctance to exert serious pressure on Russia or condemn its recent attacks that killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians.
Although last month’s limited ceasefire covered only energy infrastructure, it was described by Trump’s negotiating team as an important step on the path to a full ceasefire before peace talks. It has been widely criticized, however, for its vagueness and for the contradictions between Russia, Ukraine and the United States on key aspects — including the date it took effect and what was covered.
The Kremlin says the partial ceasefire — which it refers to as a temporary moratorium on energy infrastructure attacks — started March 18, meaning it would end by Thursday. But Ukraine says it began a week later, on March 25.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the “moratorium” is about to expire, and he accused Ukraine of not abiding by it. He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin would make a decision in the coming days.
The partial ceasefire did not designate any group to police violations, and both sides have accused the other of almost daily attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry has claimed constant Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, largely without evidence, even though Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, fuel depots and similar facilities have halted.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian power stations and major facilities had already declined before the ceasefire, but Ukrainian officials say that Russia has repeatedly destroyed electricity distribution networks in Poltava, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kryvyi Rih, and elsewhere over the past 30 days.
As Trump has pressed for speedier Russian progress toward a deal — and expressed frustration at the lack of it — the Kremlin has continually downplayed any hopes of a swift agreement.
Asked if the Kremlin shared the Trump team’s optimism that a deal could be reached soon, Peskov said Monday, “This is such a complex substance that it is hardly possible to expect immediate results.” He declined to speak about any time frame for a deal. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had a similar message in an interview published Monday in the Russian business daily Kommersant.
He said Russia and the United States have not agreed on any of the key elements of a peace deal.
“The answer is no,” he said, adding that Russia’s demands were “not some kind of negotiating position.”
That was not the message that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff brought back from Moscow. Earlier this month, he met in Washington with senior Russian official Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, who is under U.S. sanctions, then last week met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior aide Yuri Ushakov in St. Petersburg for “nearly five hours.”
He later told Fox News that the meeting was “compelling” and that “we might be on the verge of something that would be very, very important for the world at large.”
“And toward the end, we actually came up with … what Putin’s request is to get, to have a permanent peace here. So beyond the ceasefire, we got an answer to that,” Witkoff said without elaborating.
The Trump administration has so far sidelined Europe from a role in the peace talks. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Witkoff are scheduled to fly to Paris this week for talks on Ukraine and other issues. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have been leading efforts to create a “reassurance force” in Ukraine after any peace deal to deter future Russian attacks.
Russia has been strongly condemned by many Western leaders for killing dozens of Ukrainian civilians in two recent missile attacks — on Palm Sunday in Sumy, killing 34 people and wounding at least 117, and on a playground in Kryvyi Rih on April 4, killing 20 people, including nine children.
Trump said he was told that the Sumy attack was a “mistake,” but the Kremlin has not acknowledged any mistake, and Peskov instead said Monday that “our forces strike exclusively military and paramilitary targets.”
After the missile attacks, Trump shifted the blame for the war onto Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump once more accusing him of starting the war — although it was Russia that invaded Ukraine — and cast blame as well on President Joe Biden. Zelenskyy’s “mistake was letting the war happen,” Trump said.
“You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,” Trump said Monday, a day after the Palm Sunday attack.
Trump has threatened secondary sanctions on Russian oil if Putin blocks a peace deal, but he has yet to take firm action. Instead, Putin has faced down Trump’s irritation at Russia’s delaying tactics without suffering any consequences, and he appears to have successfully maneuvered to achieve the opposite — enabling his forces to continue fighting as negotiations continue on a peace deal and on improved bilateral ties with the United States, including future economic deals.
Witkoff said there was scope for U.S. economic agreement with Russia as part of a deal. “I believe there’s a possibility to reshape the Russia-United States relationship through some very compelling commercial opportunities that I think give real stability to the region, too,” he said.
He also said the future of the five Ukrainian territories annexed (but not totally conquered) by Russia was central, as well as denying Ukraine entry to NATO.
But analysts have criticized Witkoff’s approach after he repeated a series of Kremlin talking points. Critics contend that he does not appear aware of Putin’s negotiating tactics or Kremlin propaganda on the political background of the conflict.
Witkoff has attended lengthy meetings with Putin alone, without a team of State Department experts who could advise on Kremlin foreign policy, its history of interference in Ukraine or its false narrative about Ukraine’s history, which Putin does not consider to be a real country.
Russian officials, meanwhile, have continued to push their maximalist demands. On Tuesday, Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin said that Russia’s goals in the Ukraine war remain unchanged.
They include recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over five occupied regions that it illegally annexed: Crimea in 2014, and Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2022 — which Moscow does not fully control. Russia is demanding that Ukraine withdraw its forces and cede yet more territory to Russia, demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine.
Russia also continues to demand Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization, meaning that Ukraine’s military would be drastically reduced, leaving it unable to defend itself in the future.
“The terms of a peaceful settlement certainly envision Ukraine’s neutral and nuclear-free status and the demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state,” Naryshkin said. Natalia Abbakumova and Serhiy Morgunov contributed to this report.
