Belgium soldiers, assigned to 1st Carabiners, 1st Grenadiers conduct training at the Grafenwoehr Training Area, as part of the European Union’s Battlegroup 2014-02, Feb. 21, 2014. (Gerhard Seuffert/Army)
BRUSSELS — The European Union, an entity that casts itself as a peace and trade project, is in crisis talks Thursday focused on defense.
Along with the specter of a belligerent Moscow, President Donald Trump’s sudden redrawing of alliances and withdrawal of aid for Ukraine are driving Europeans to fast-track plans to bolster their militaries, upgrade their arsenals — and, ultimately, to curb their dependence on the United States.
“I want to believe the U.S. will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case,” French President Emmanuel Macron told his country in a speech Wednesday night. “The future of Europe must not be decided in Washington or Moscow.” Among the E.U. leaders meeting in Brussels, there’s a rallying cry that Europe needs to embark on a military buildup in a way it hasn’t in decades.
The E.U.’s executive branch has unveiled a proposal to unlock up to 800 billion euros ($860 billion) of extra defense spending in the coming years, while Germany is starting a big shift away from controls limiting borrowing. Meanwhile, France is floating the possibility of expanding its nuclear deterrent to cover its European allies.
A military revival in Europe won’t be easy or cheap.
The 27-nation bloc was not built for Trump’s battering ram of decisions, and it is playing catch up with a more militarized, belligerent world.
“The E.U. was built for peacetime,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs and a former E.U. foreign policy adviser. “There was no need for speed but rather this kind of slow, careful construction of shared interests and identities and all the rest of it.”
In such “dramatic moments” though, “what you tend to think of as being technically impossible is often not,” she said. An era of rearmament
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has outlined a sweeping, though still blurry, proposal to raise defense spending largely through loans and the loosening of balanced budget requirements.
“A new era is upon us. Some of our fundamental assumptions are being undermined to their very core,” she wrote in a letter to the leaders of E.U. countries ahead of Thursday’s summit.
E.U. leaders, who are convening urgently on defense and Ukraine plans, will debate the details Thursday. Decisions about hiking defense spending will ultimately be up to E.U. states, and public finances are already strained in key economies.
The proposal features a 150-billion-euro program for European states to pay for weapons by drawing on loans, with funding raised on the capital markets and backed by the E.U. budget. It’s based on a provision that allows assistance to states during exceptional circumstances. The funds could go to investments such as air and missile defense, artillery and drones, and the plan would ultimately require approval from a special majority of E.U. member states — an easier threshold than unanimity.
The E.U. loves rules but is now also ready to relax some for defense spending. The commission’s framework includes activating an “escape clause” giving countries flexibility to diverge from strict deficit rules to spend on defense. Such a move could help nations spend more without making painful cuts elsewhere, such as social benefits, although at the risk of increasing deficits.
The plans also involve redirecting existing funds intended for the bloc’s poorer regions toward military spending, and giving the European Investment Bank more leeway to fund defense projects.
European officials described it as a starting point. “Is this the end of the story? No,” one said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share internal deliberations. “But this is indeed the turning of a page.”
At the core is the question of how much Europe can defend itself with less U.S. help.
“It’s wise to assume and plan for the worst case scenario,” Tocci said. “The worst case is one in which the U.S. cannot be persuaded to be nice to us or even to ignore us. It is one in which the U.S. is out there to undermine us.”
The continent’s leaders expected pressure from the Trump administration to boost defense spending, and some may hope their moves to step up will play well in Washington. But it’s another thing to prepare for a U.S. realignment toward Russia. They often got “fair criticism” for not better preparing after years of signs of U.S. interest shifting from Europe, but they’re grappling with a “radically different” dynamic today, she added. Military aid for Ukraine
This week’s U.S. pause of military aid for Kyiv only added to the urgency, said Bronwen Maddox, director of the London-based Chatham House. “It is a huge turning point,” she said. “It tells Europe that you may as well be on your own.”
The E.U. defense plan remains vague about how far it could go to aiding Ukraine, and some of Kyiv’s strongest backers push for using part of the funds to bolster Ukrainian capabilities.
Von der Leyen said the defense fund would help with both. The proposal, which will allow European states “pool demand and buy together,” would free up room to provide military equipment for Ukraine, she said. European officials said part of the new equipment purchased could be dispatched to Kyiv.
The push for a separate, new E.U. military aid package for Ukraine has been thorny inside the bloc’s halls, where unanimity requirements can slow decisions. Kremlin-friendly Hungary, applauding Trump’s moves on Ukraine, is again seeking to hold up pledges of military aid.
Still, turning the range of proposals to rearm Europe into reality will also run up against diverging national interests and economic pressures. Leaders are trying to rally weary populations to redirect their funds to weapons, which will be trickier in countries farther from the conflict where military spending is relatively lower and deficits are high. Moves to both hike European defense spending and arm Ukraine could strain European efforts, especially if Washington further turns on Kyiv.
Some diplomats also point to what they see as double-edged sword from a Trump administration that calls on Europeans to be more independent, but wants them to buy more U.S. weapons. Bending the rules
Another idea on the table is the creation of a rearmament bank similar to the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development created after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
With this plan and others, there’s growing momentum to work with countries outside the E.U. on defense, including Britain, Norway and Turkey, to circumvent features of the bloc that hobble decision-making and to pull in more capabilities.
Also outside the E.U. format, countries are maneuvering to find money at home, and the Trump effect has pushed many to shift long-held positions.
In Germany, the clash between Trump and Kyiv, followed by the U.S. suspension of Ukraine aid, fueled a swift rethink of the country’s tightly drawn purse strings just days after a national election.
Presumptive chancellor Friedrich Merz and the parties most likely to form Germany’s next government unveiled an agreement to reinforce defense by reforming Germany’s constitutionally enshrined debt brake. The proposal — a shift from the country’s conservative approach to borrowing — would exempt defense spending above 1 percent of gross domestic product from the debt-brake restrictions.
“The political developments in Europe and the world are evolving faster than we anticipated just a week ago,” Merz said in announcing the proposal. “‘Whatever it takes’ must now also apply to our defense.”
In France, some officials have floated taxing the rich for a defense boost. Macron said tough choices will have to be made to mobilize private and public funds, though he promised no tax hikes.
“Whatever happens,” Macron said on the eve of the summit, “we need to better equip ourselves.” Kate Brady in Berlin and Leo Sands in London contributed to this report.
