U.S. soldiers assigned to the 41st Field Artillery Brigade engage targets with a pair of high mobility artillery rocket systems, or HIMARS, during an exercise in Bemowo Piskie, Poland, in May 2023. The reelection of Donald Trump as president will likely mean changes to the U.S. military’s mission in Europe. (John Schoebel/U.S. Army National Guard)
STUTTGART, Germany — Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House will likely transform the U.S. military’s mission in Europe, alter its relationship with NATO and upend the Pentagon’s whole strategy for assisting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Trump, who won Tuesday’s presidential election in a dominant showing that also saw Republicans retake the Senate, is now in prime position to settle business unfinished during his first term from 2017 to 2021.
Pressure will intensify on allies in Europe to ramp up defense spending and prepare to take on the bulk of the security load on the Continent, where the U.S. has long been seen as the ultimate security underwriter.
In Europe, Trump’s win was widely met with an awareness of a looming onus on NATO’s militaries to do more.
“The right response for Europe is not to cry publicly, but to take a deep breath and return with a wise plan for rebalancing in NATO to save it,” Jakub Janda, director of the European Values Center for Security Policy in Prague, said Wednesday.
U.S. soldiers conduct security during a live-fire exercise at Bemowo Piskie Training Area in Poland on Feb. 28, 2024. Reduction or elimination of an American tank brigade and troop rotations to Europe could be on the table in a second Donald Trump administration. (Cecil Elliott II/U.S. Army)
U.S. M1A1 Abrams tanks arrive at Grafenwoehr, Germany, in May 2023 to be used for training of Ukrainian military personnel. The reelection of Donald Trump as president could upend the Pentagon's strategy for assisting Ukraine in its war against Russia. (U.S. Army)
At the 2017 NATO summit in Brussels, President Donald Trump walks with Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Rutte, now NATO's secretary-general, has a reputation for working well with Trump. (NATO)
Regarding weapons support for Ukraine, Europe also must prepare to carry the load “like now,” he said in a statement.
Marko Mihkelson, a parliamentarian in Estonia, which is vulnerably positioned on NATO’s eastern flank and borders Russia, said Wednesday that NATO’s “toughest years lie ahead.”
“Regardless of the fact that the next president of the USA is most probably Donald Trump, Europe must do everything to preserve the transatlantic alliance,” Mihkelson, chairman of Estonia’s foreign affairs committee, said in a statement.
During the campaign, Trump made it clear that he opposes arming Ukraine and considers Kyiv at least partially responsible for Russia’s invasion.
He also asserted that a peace deal can be reached with Russia, although it’s unclear whether that is possible or what the terms of an agreement would look like.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose country has depended on American support to fight Russia for nearly three years, was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, saying that he looked forward to working with him.
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” Zelenskyy said, adding that this principle “can practically bring a just peace in Ukraine closer.”
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who had a reputation for working well with Trump when he was prime minister of the Netherlands, struck a similar tone Wednesday.
“His leadership will again be key to keeping our alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO,” Rutte said in a statement.
Still, the situation in Ukraine could be a source of internal conflict. Rutte said Monday that he is confident the United States under Trump would remain committed to Ukraine.
“We will work with Donald Trump and make sure that the alliance stays united,” Rutte said. “I have no doubt, because it is in our interest. It is our interest here, but also the United States’, because they are not in this to ... repeat the mistake after the First World War of withdrawing (from) Europe.”
It’s unclear to what degree the Pentagon under Trump would recalibrate the U.S. European Command mission. At the end of his first term, a plan was put in place to remove some 12,000 troops from Germany and reposition them in the U.S. and other European locales.
The proposal was slapped together with less than a year left in his term and was rejected when President Joe Biden stepped into office.
Trump’s plan to send the Vilseck, Germany-based 2nd Cavalry Regiment stateside and shift EUCOM to Mons, Belgium, among other moves, could be resurrected.
Other possibilities included reducing or eliminating rotations of tank brigades and other units that have reinforced NATO’s eastern flank for the past 10 years.
EUCOM has been experiencing a period of growth. The war in Ukraine has led to larger rotations of troops and the Army in Europe has added artillery capabilities in recent years.
Other future plans made during the Biden administration, such as the deployment and permanent basing of long-range artillery units in Germany, could be canceled. Such assets, in high demand across the military, could be repurposed for a Pacific mission.
China hawks in Trump’s orbit argue that allies in Europe are wealthy enough to furnish the bulk of conventional forces required to deter Russian aggression on NATO territory. Meanwhile, China’s military buildup means the Pentagon needs to save and redirect resources for a potential conflict there.
While Trump critics have warned that his ultimate aim is to quit or weaken NATO, Trump himself hasn’t indicated that he intends to do that in a second term.
His campaign platform states that he will “finish the process ... of fundamentally reevaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.”
Last week, his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, said Trump would keep the country in the alliance.
“Of course, we’re going to honor our NATO commitments,” Vance said on NBC. “But I think it’s important ... that we recognize that NATO is not just a welfare client. It should be a real alliance.”
Trump’s return to the White House also would put a spotlight on allied defense investments. While most member countries have increased spending, nine of the 32 do not dedicate 2% of gross domestic product to defense as expected under NATO protocols.
That was a major priority for Trump in the first term and will most likely be a point of emphasis once again.
The benchmark is regarded as a bare minimum, and numerous officials, including NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli, have said defense spending should be even higher than 2% of GDP.
Poland, which is expected to dedicate 5% of GDP to defense next year, will likely be regarded as a model ally in Trump’s second term.
The question is whether other countries will be prepared to meet Trump’s expectations and what the consequences will be if they fall short.
At a rally in February, Trump said American willingness to defend allies from a Russian attack hinges on a country’s compliance with defense spending obligations.
“No, I would not protect you,” he said he had told an unidentified European leader. “In fact, I would encourage (the Russians) to do whatever the hell they want. You’ve got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”
