In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia President Vladimir Putin meets with the media after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member states leaders’ summit in Astana on July 4, 2024. (Sergei Guneyev, Pool Photo, Sputnik, AFP via Getty Images/TNS)
Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to “test the West’s red lines” and will be prepared for a military engagement with NATO by the end of the decade, according to Germany’s top spy.
Bruno Kahl, the president of the Federal Intelligence Service, or BND, told lawmakers in Berlin Monday that Putin is seeking to expand the Kremlin’s sphere of influence in Europe and drive U.S. military forces out of the continent as its defense spending outstrips European Union levels.
“The Kremlin sees the West — and Germany as well — as an adversary,” Kahl said at a public hearing of a parliamentary panel that oversees the country’s intelligence agencies. The chances of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization invoking its mutual defense clause at some point are high, Kahl added.
The assessment aligns with other European officials who view Russia as a more ominous threat following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned this year that Russia could attack the NATO alliance within five to eight years.
The EU’s nominee to be the bloc’s first-ever defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, echoed that projection this month, saying that the region needs to scale up its military for a potential confrontation with Russia “in six to eight years.”
Such warnings may be alarmist, according to a senior official familiar with discussions within NATO. Putin is likely to hold back from a direct confrontation and focus on activities such as disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks and sabotage, the official said on condition of anonymity.
Without U.S. backing, Europe’s defense efforts would need at least a decade to build up the capabilities to fend off an attack, Bloomberg has reported.
Kahl spoke alongside other German spy chiefs, including the nation’s top domestic intelligence official, Thomas Haldenwang, and Martina Rosenberg, the head of military intelligence.
Haldenwang’s agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, has registered an unprecedented level of disruption, he said.
“We’re observing aggressive activity by Russian intelligence agencies,” he told lawmakers, including a sharp rise in espionage and sabotage.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
