An undated image shows a German soldier guiding the loading of a Panzerhaubitze 2000 onto a railway car during an exercise in Lithuania. Germany had 2,398 battle tanks in 2004 compared with 339 in 2021, according to Kiel Institute researchers who say that Berlin isn’t rearming quickly enough to counter Russia. (Bundeswehr)
BERLIN — Germany is rearming too slowly to counter Russia and will need as long as a century to build up parts of its military inventory to the level of 20 years ago, according to a think tank report released Monday.
The analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy says Germany is barely managing to replace the weapons it is sending to help Ukraine’s war effort — stocks of air defense systems and howitzers have plummeted, for example — and is not spending enough to stand up to Russia.
“What Europe needs now is a permanent, substantial and immediate increase in Germany’s regular defense spending to at least 2% of GDP,” said Guntram Wolff, the report’s lead author. “Let’s be clear — any ‘business as usual’ approach would be negligent and irresponsible in the face of Russian aggression.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought a “zeitenwende,” or historical turning point, to defense policy in Berlin, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcing a new 100-billion-euro special fund to bolster Germany’s armed forces.
But it was not until last year that Germany began to raise its regular defense spending in any significant way and reach NATO’s target spending levels, according to the report. Researchers say it is too little, too late.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, along with a delegation, visited the Bundeswehr’s Hub North in Klietz, Germany, to observe the training of Ukrainian soldiers. Germany had 2,398 battle tanks in 2004 compared with 339 in 2021, according to Kiel Institute researchers who say that Berlin isn’t rearming quickly enough to counter Russia. (Bundeswehr)
Years of downsizing and modest rearmament mean that the Bundeswehr, Germany’s military, is on track to reestablish its 2004 capabilities in combat aircraft in 15 years, in tanks in 40 years and in artillery howitzers in 100 years.
Germany had 423 combat aircraft in 2004 compared with 226 in 2021; 2,398 battle tanks in 2004 compared with 339 in 2021; and 978 howitzers in 2004 compared to 121 in 2021, according to the Kiel Institute’s military procurement tracker.
The German government has ordered a yearly average of 14 combat aircraft, 49.2 tanks and 8.8 howitzers since the start of the war in Ukraine, the tracker states.
Meanwhile, Russia’s war machine has ramped up production to the point where it can produce as many weapons in six months as all of Germany’s armed forces can currently field, according to the report.
Russia is capable of comfortably expending 10,000 rounds of ammunition per day on the battlefield without fear of draining its inventory, while Germany would use up a year’s worth of its ammunition production within 70 days at the same rate of fire, researchers said.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announces a new delivery of 12 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Sept. 6, 2024. Germany's stock of howitzers and other critical military systems has plummeted over the past two decades, according to a recently released Kiel Institute report. (Alexander Riedel/Stars and Stripes)
Training shells sit next to a Leopard 1 A5 on June 13, 2024, at Klietz training range, Germany, where Ukrainian troops train to drive and shoot the Danish and German-donated battle tanks. Germany’s current ammunition production would be depleted within 70 days if used at Russia’s rate of fire, highlighting a critical shortfall in Germany’s rearmament efforts, according to the Kiel Institute report. (Alexander Riedel/Stars and Stripes)
The report criticizes German budget planning and says the defense industry cannot sufficiently expand production capacity because it is not clear how much money Berlin will be willing to spend on the military once its special defense fund is exhausted.
“Long-term planning and an efficient procurement system are essential to build industrial capacity,” Wolff said.
The Kiel Institute also sounded the alarm over Russia’s increasing fighting power.
Moscow’s capacity to produce long-range air defense systems has doubled, and its capacity to produce tanks has tripled. It has also increased its capacity to produce drones more than sixfold, according to the report.
Russia’s growing expertise and arsenal of supersonic and hypersonic missiles, which are incredibly destructive and difficult to intercept, pose a major risk to NATO, researchers said.
Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute, said Germany, Europe’s largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, needs an annual defense budget of at least 100 billion euros per year to credibly deter Russia. Germany budgeted 52 billion euros in its regular defense budget this year.
“The ‘Zeitenwende,’ or epochal shift, in military spending promised by the German government in 2022 has so far proved to be empty rhetoric,” he said. “Peace will come when the regime in Moscow understands that it cannot win wars of aggression in Europe militarily. For this, Germany and Europe need credible military capabilities.”
