President Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office has brought plenty of unwelcome surprises for Beijing. But as the U.S. president seeks to broker a quick end to the Ukraine war — upending decades of American policy toward Russia in the process — Chinese leader Xi Jinping may see a silver lining.

Xi spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Monday, affirming the countries’ close ties on the third anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine and calling Moscow a “true friend” and “good neighbor,” according to a Chinese readout.

The call came amid speculation that Trump’s dramatic policy shift to forge closer ties with Moscow could disadvantage Beijing, and seemed partly aimed at portraying confidence in the long-standing alliance.

However, experts in Washington and Beijing say that any anxiety about the shifting geopolitics is mixed with optimism on the part of Chinese leaders, who may welcome a diplomatic end to Ukraine war.

“The call seems targeted against any speculation that Russia would deprioritize its relations with China as part of a grand bargain over Ukraine,” said Joseph Torigian, a scholar of Russia-China relations at American University in Washington. “But there are reasons to believe that China is not that worried.”

“A resolution to the war against Ukraine on Russia’s terms would be a positive outcome,” he said. “The war has put China in a difficult position, and a Russian ‘victory’ would be a defeat of the West.”

Beijing has provided crucial economic and political assistance to Russia since the war started in 2022 amid a “no limits partnership” between the two countries. Putin and Xi have frequently spoken with each other — including just last month, following Trump’s inauguration — and have attempted to portray their alliance as an alternative to a U.S.-led global order.

While Russia has faced crippling Western sanctions and isolation on the international stage since the invasion, Beijing has lent a hand, providing electronic components Moscow needs on the battlefield as well as a much needed market for Russia’s oil sales. In fact, trade between China and Russia grew nearly 70 percent from 2021 to 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

Trump’s return to the Oval Office has changed this isolation. Over the last month, Trump has swiftly signaled that he wants to work with Putin, setting up U.S.-Russia talks last week, falsely accusing Ukraine of starting the conflict and calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator.”

The quick upending of U.S.-Russia ties has led some experts to speculate whether Trump is attempting to pull off a “reverse Nixon,” meaning that just as President Richard M. Nixon countered the Soviet Union through his détente with China in 1972, Trump could isolate China by seeking closer relations with Moscow.

Experts on Russia-China relations, however, believe a “reverse Nixon” is far-fetched.

Cui Hongjian, a scholar of European studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that while U.S.-Russia engagement has “put some pressure on China,” it won’t damage the long-standing trust and shared interest between Moscow and Beijing.

“China and Russia have built a more comprehensive partnership that extends beyond security to economic development,” Cui said.

“These are not the same countries they once were. As a Greek philosopher famously said, ‘No man ever steps in the same river twice.’”

Beijing has echoed that point this week. The Global Times, a hawkish Chinese Communist Party-affiliated newspaper, ran an editorial dismissing the idea that Beijing was “nervous” about Trump’s overtures to Moscow, arguing that this “underestimates” the Russia-China bond.

In Monday’s phone call, Xi said that the bilateral relationship could not be affected by any “third party,” in an apparent reference to Washington, while Putin briefed Xi on recent Russia-U.S. contacts in the call, according to the Chinese readout.

Far from isolating Beijing, there may be positive implications for China if Ukraine war finally ends.

The war has put Beijing in a tough position, said Li Cheng, a political science professor at the University of Hong Kong. China’s support for Russia has represented a source of friction in its relationship with Europe and the United States, while Chinese companies have been subjected to sanctions by Washington for supporting Russia’s war machine.

“China wants to improve its relationship with Europe,” he said. “When [the] Ukraine war broke out, European countries became more critical, more concerned about China.”

In a speech at the Munich Security Conference this month, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, seemed to nod at this desire for better Europe-China ties.

“China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world,” Wang said. “China is willing to work with the European side to … steer the world to a bright future of peace, security, prosperity and progress.”

China, however, is also navigating a turbulent relationship of its own with Washington. The two countries are dealing with escalating trade tensions after Trump slapped 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods and Beijing retaliated with various economic measures. In the latest salvo aimed at Beijing, Trump unveiled a new policy last Friday to restrict Chinese investment in the U.S.

Amid these hostilities, Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, said that Beijing may be worried that an end to the Ukraine conflict could leave more space for Trump to focus on competition with China.

“The real worry is that if there was a peace in Ukraine, then resources that the U.S., and perhaps the Europeans, had previously devoted to propping up Ukraine then get refocused to Asia,” he said.

Trump appointees have made this precise argument. For example, Elbridge Colby, who is awaiting confirmation as a senior defense official, said in an interview in 2023 that the U.S. “will need to reduce monetary and military support [to Ukraine] to enable a greater focus on Asia.”

The continued tensions with the United States, however, may make it all the more necessary for China to maintain a strong alliance with Russia.

“Beijing is preparing for a protracted competition, possibly even confrontation, with the United States,” said Philipp Ivanov, a China-Russia expert and founder of Geopolitical Risk and Strategy Practice, a consultancy. “When the U.S.-China relationship is under strain, it’s actually good to have Russia in its corner.”

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