North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, watches a missile launch alongside military officials in this image release by the state-run Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 19, 2024. (KCNA)
North Korea’s failure to deliver on its plans to put three spy satellites into orbit last year was unsurprising, experts say, but it indicates Pyongyang is pursuing a newer, efficient form of rocket technology.
The first and only attempt to launch a satellite last year ended in a mid-flight explosion on May 27, sending debris over the Yellow Sea, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Pyongyang attributed the failure to a rocket powered by a new “liquid oxygen” engine used to carry the satellite, according to the state-controlled Korean Central News Agency the next day.
Analysts described this purported shift in rocket propulsion technology as an evolution of North Korea’s space program and the reason for its failure to launch three satellites in 2024.
“If we’re to believe [North Korea’s] statement, then they’re moving on from military-grade engines to civilian-application engines,” Tianran Xu, an Open Nuclear Network analyst based in Austria, said by phone Wednesday. “They are more energetic for sure, but that’s a new line of technology they’re pursuing. So, if that’s true, it’s no surprise that they ended in failure on their first try.”
The communist regime vowed to launch three spy satellites into orbit in 2024. The pledge came in December 2023 at its annual plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea.
North Korean rockets carrying satellites traditionally use “well-tested” engines that also power long-range missiles, such as the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, Xu said.
The Russian and Chinese militaries favored these engine types in the 1950s due to their durability and low maintenance for “launch-ready” rockets. They are fueled by military-grade propellants that can be stored for years at room temperature, Xu said.
However, because of its high boiling point, military-grade fuel can be inefficient compared to other propellants used commercially today, such as liquid oxygen kerosene, or the purest form of oxygen, he said.
Liquid oxygen kerosene boils off very easily compared to military-grade fuel and cannot be stored for long periods of time, Xu said.
A move away from military-grade fuel is a natural step in propulsion technology for North Korea’s fledgling space program, said Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
“The decision to go liquid oxygen is the logical choice if you’d like to pursue more serious development,” he said by phone Thursday.
Xu and Yang agreed that Pyongyang’s transition to liquid oxygen kerosene will take some time, but it can still launch satellites using its existing rocket technology.
North Korea has a “tendency to aim for high-hanging fruit, and then, as a result, is often met with setbacks and difficulties,” Xu said.
“If I was them, I would definitely focus on the reliability of launch vehicles, rather than aiming for the best performance engine,” he said. “But that’s not what Kim wants.”
North Korea most likely will perfect the technology someday, Yang predicted.
Of its nine satellite launches since 1998, only three successfully reached orbit.
The first reconnaissance satellite, placed into orbit Nov. 21, 2023, was the only one that succeeded of three launch attempts that year. Satellites successfully launched in 2016 and 2012 were designed for nonmilitary applications, such as weather forecasting, according to KCNA.
KCNA reported that the reconnaissance satellite photographed “major target regions” in South Korea and the United States, such as the White House, the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier docked at South Korea’s largest port, and Pyeongtaek city, the site of the U.S. Army’s Camp Humphreys and the Air Force’s Osan Air Base.
The state-run outlet did not release photos taken by the satellite. South Korea’s military said it was operational but had no military value.
