President Donald Trump speaks to service members at Yokota Air Base, Japan, Nov. 5, 2017. (Aaron Kidd/Stars and Stripes)
TOKYO — President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration has the potential to bring uncertainty to an already tense security situation around Japan, a foreign policy expert recently told reporters in Japan’s capital city.
“The Trump administration’s unpredictable diplomacy could destabilize the region,” Chuo University professor Taizo Miyagi said Friday at a press briefing hosted by the Foreign Press Center.
The Trump administration may put American interests at the heart of dealings with other nations, Miyagi said, and Trump himself may conduct “deal-like” diplomacy with foreign leaders.
“It is necessary to think of possibilities that President Trump may make deals with China or North Korea, directly bypassing Japan,” he added.
A potential upside of deals made by Trump could be invigorated Japanese diplomacy in the region, Miyagi said.
The pillar of Japan’s foreign relations will continue to be the U.S.-Japan alliance, but a change in America’s approach could spur Japan to launch its own initiatives to try to soften tensions with neighbors, he said.
Japan has set a target of spending 2% of its gross domestic product for defense, aiming to strengthen its deterrence capabilities.
“There is no doubt that there are certain needs for Japan to maintain or strengthen deterrence and defense capabilities,” Miyagi said.
However, Japan is facing economic pressures that could constrain its investment in security. The country may look at the possibility of reducing tensions in East Asia by diplomacy, Miyagi told reporters.
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe greatly expanded Japan’s diplomatic influence in the Indo-Pacific, he said.
One challenge facing Japan is that no strong leader, nor public sentiment, backs stronger diplomacy today, Miyagi said.
Instead, Japan’s public wants a hardline position against China and North Korea due to territorial disputes with Beijing and the unresolved issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea, Miyagi said.
Strong Japanese leadership could overcome these obstacles and lead diplomacy to ease tensions in the region, he said.
