The aircraft carrier USS George Washington leads U.S., Japanese and South Korean destroyers in formation during Freedom Edge 24-2 in the East China Sea, Nov. 13, 2024. (Geoffrey Ottinger/U.S. Navy)
WASHINGTON — Corruption may be slowing the pace of China’s military modernization program despite significant improvements and growth since 2023, the Pentagon said in a report Wednesday.
In the second-half of 2023, 15 high-ranking Chinese military officials and defense industry executives were ousted, several of which oversaw equipment development projects related to modernizing China’s ground based nuclear and conventional missiles.
Corruption touched every service in the Chinese military, according to the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on the state of military developments in the People’s Republic of China.
“This wave of corruption-related investigations and the removal of senior leaders may have disrupted the [People’s Liberation Army] toward its 2027 goal” of having the capability to take over Taiwan, a senior defense official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.
As a result, China’s military saw frequent turnover and replacement of high-level personnel followed by time-consuming, deep investigations to determine the extent of the corruption, the official said. The most prominent removal was that of PRC Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu in October 2023.
Li led the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department from 2017 to 2022, where he would have signed off on all PLA weapons acquisitions.
“There is a bit of a spiraling kind of effect where it drives in additional officials who are connected to the one official originally at the center of the investigation,” he said.
Still, a key takeaway from the Pentagon’s assessment is that China is continuing its rapid nuclear buildup. The congressionally mandated report is meant to update lawmakers on China’s latest military developments and activities, including the growth of its nuclear program, hypersonic missiles, increased international influence and expansion into other countries.
China’s strategy continues to be to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ by 2049 to match or surpass U.S. global influence and power, displace U.S. alliances and security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region and revise the international order to be more advantageous to Beijing’s authoritarian system and national interests.
“This policy largely understates the [People’s Republic of China] objective of revising the international order in support of its interests,” the official said.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has called China the “pacing threat” for the U.S. military with its increasingly aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, rapid military development and expanding international ambitions.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory, to be brought under its control by force if necessary. In recent years, the PLA has worked to raise its forces, setting a mile marker to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 and to complete the modernization of its services by 2035.
The PLA Army has worked to hone its long-range joint firing capabilities, while the PLA Rocket Force is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, shore-based, fixed-wing aviation units have been transitioned from the PLA navy to its air force, which the Defense Department thinks will enable better command and control.
Numerically, China has the largest navy in the world with a battle force of more than 370 ships and submarines — 140 of which are surface combatant ships. In the near term, the navy will have the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles, notably enhancing China’s power projection capability, the report reads.
“They are going to be able to target a larger number of targets, some different types of targets, do greater levels of damage, have more options for multiple rounds of counter strikes, and more kinds of tailored deployment of lower yield weapons,” the official said.
In 2023, according to the report, the PLA navy deployed one of its carriers three times to the Philippine Sea, a record number for any Chinese carrier in a calendar year.
A new YUSHEN-class amphibious assault ship belonging to the Chinese navy also conducted its first extended area deployment, sailing beyond the first island chain, a series of islands enclosing the East Asia coastline.
The islands, which include the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan, Okinawa and the northern Philippines, former a barrier that makes it difficult to enter or exit the China Seas.
The official did not speculate on when a Chinese carrier strike group might deploy to or around areas like Hawaii or California but noted China has worked to increase its power projection capabilities.
The PLA navy have deployed to the eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. They have also made port calls as distant as the Middle East and Africa, according to the report.
The Defense Department estimates China surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024. The report estimates China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. The country is expected to continue growing its nuclear force through 2030.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, the U.S. arsenal includes an estimated 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads and more than 1,900 more in reserve.
China maintains its defense policy is oriented toward advancing its sovereignty, security, and development interests while emphasizing a greater global role for itself, the report said.
“But we certainly see them developing a force that gives them a much broader range of capabilities for different types of scenarios — different rungs on the escalation ladder that go beyond what they have traditionally considered sufficient for their requirements, not just in numbers, but also in in diversity of capabilities and in technological sophistication,” the official said.
According to the report, China is suspected of developing conventionally-armed intercontinental range missile systems — a capability that would allow China to strike targets within the continental U.S.
Driving this pursuit, the official said, is China’s efforts to match or outpace U.S. capabilities.
Despite the Chinese military’s rapid development, it has not yet demonstrated the type and sophistication of certain capabilities it would need in the major regional contingency, the report reads. These include urban warfare and long-distance logistics. China has noted its personnel lack recent experience in combat operations. To counter this, the country is pouring time into training exercises and operations.
At the same time, China’s relationship with Taiwan and the Philippines has grown increasingly strained.
The report noted China amplified its pressure on Taiwan throughout 2023 and into 2024 by maintaining a naval presence around Taiwan, increasing crossings into Taiwan’s self-declared centerline and air defense identification zone (ADIZ), and conducting highly publicized major military exercises near Taiwan. Just this week, China sent 10 military aircraft and seven aircraft toward Taiwan, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry. Four of the aircraft crossed the middle line of the Taiwan Strait that forms an unofficial border between the sides.
China’s maritime forces have also been ramming and boarding Philippine vessels. But China has reduced the number of coercive and risky air intercepts of U.S. platforms in the East and South China Seas. However, the PLA continues to conduct unsafe maneuvers in the vicinity of allied forces operating in the region, the report read.
