North Korea launches a Hwasongpho-19 intercontinental ballistic missile, Oct. 31, 2024, in this image from the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper. (Rodong Sinmun)
SEOUL, South Korea — Former President Donald Trump’s reelection could dramatically shift U.S.-South Korean relations and renew questions about whether Seoul should pursue a nuclear weapons program, experts said this week.
Trump’s second term may reignite debate over a goal South Korea abandoned in 1970 when it signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or NPT, according to analysts from the Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy who spoke Monday at the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club.
The NPT, a landmark agreement, prohibits signatories from developing nuclear weapons and encourages the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
Seoul’s consideration of nuclear weapons would depend largely on Trump’s relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said Han Sukhee, president of the government-funded research institute.
Trump began his first term trading threats of “fire and fury” with Kim but later negotiated directly, meeting face to face in Singapore in 2018. The following year, a second summit in Hanoi ended without an agreement on denuclearization or sanctions relief.
If Trump recognizes Pyongyang as a legitimate nuclear state and begins disarmament talks with Kim, it could have “traumatic” consequences for South Korea, Han said.
“For the past 30 to 40 years, South Korea has been cooperative with the U.S.-led denuclearization and nonproliferation regime …,” Han said. “However, on the contrary, North Korea has been hostile to the United States and they also successfully developed their nuclear weapons systems.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, watch the launch of a Hwasongpho-19 intercontinental ballistic missile, Oct. 31, 2024, in this image from the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper. (Rodong Sinmun)
Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006, most recently on Sept. 3, 2017, when it claimed to have detonated a hydrogen bomb. So far this year, it has launched about 45 ballistic missiles over 12 days of testing.
While Trump is unlikely to support South Korea developing its own nuclear arsenal, Seoul could explore other “nuclear options,” such as deploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or revisiting past nuclear agreements, said Kyoung-Suk Ha, a research fellow at the institute.
Public opinion in South Korea also hinges on continued U.S. military support, Han said.
The U.S. has provided security assurances to South Korea since the 1950-53 Korean War, particularly in response to ongoing threats from the North.
The alliance is “stronger than ever,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a Nov. 13 press conference, emphasizing Washington’s commitment to South Korea’s defense. That commitment includes “the full range of our nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities,” he said.
In addition to maintaining 28,500 troops in South Korea, the U.S. has dispatched high-profile military assets to reaffirm its pledge.
On July 18, 2023, the USS Kentucky — a ballistic missile submarine — docked at South Korea’s largest port, Busan, marking the first visit of its kind in 42 years. On June 5, a U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bomber carried out live-fire drills with South Korean fighter jets, the first joint exercise of its kind in seven years.
Han noted that such actions underscore the U.S.’s extended deterrence, which could dissuade South Korea from pursuing its own nuclear weapons.
