NEW DELHI — Roughly 17 million Sri Lankans are heading to the polls in the first election since one of the country’s worst financial meltdowns, with meaningful repercussions for its economic recovery.

After the nation’s debt default in 2022, a swarm of protesters flooded the presidential palace, forcing President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and eventually resign. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was voted into power by Parliament after Rajapaksa’s ouster, is seeking another term. But there are also more than three dozen other candidates vying to convince voters that they are best placed to guide the country through a much-needed financial recovery.

Why is this election important?

Rajapaksa had cut taxes right before the pandemic, gutting state revenue and ushering in an unprecedented debt default and skyrocketing inflation. Now global financing is at the heart of the election, and two neighbors stuck in a major geopolitical battle — China and India — are closely watching how events unfold.

“We recognize that India and China have global ambitions,” said Harini Amarasuriya, a member of Parliament from a leftist coalition in this election. “We aren’t averse to investment at all. We just want it done the proper way. We don’t want any corruption.”

For decades now, Chinese loans have propelled major infrastructure projects in the country, contributing to its debilitating debt. India, with some assistance from the United States, has begun playing catch-up.

Some contenders are pulling foreign investments into electoral focus. A front-running socialist candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, said he would cancel the $442 million wind power project run by the Indian tycoon Gautam Adani, saying it threatens the country’s “energy sovereignty.”

Adani is also working on a port project in Colombo with American financial assistance.

What are the main issues?

This election is a referendum on austerity measures that were implemented soon after the financial crash. Wickremesinghe had sought help via a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, which required the state to introduce measures such as raising taxes and privatizing several state companies.

Many of those economic troubles continue to distress Sri Lankans, with the cost of living and taxes remaining central concerns.

However, the country’s economy has more recently grown beyond expectations, with slowing inflation. Just a couple days before the election, the country received another boost with a draft deal to restructure its $12.5 billion in foreign debt.

But whether the macro changes have shifted mood on the ground remains to be seen. Poverty levels in the country continue to rise, according to the World Bank, with more than a quarter of the population living below the poverty line.

Sri Lanka’s election, said Nilanthi Samaranayake of the U.S. Institute of Peace and the East-West Center, is bringing to the fore “tangible electoral consequences” of global banks’ impact on a developing economy.

Who is on the ballot?

There are nearly 40 candidates in this election, but the race has become a three-pronged battle for the first time in the island’s history.

The incumbent, Wickremesinghe, 75, is running on a call to keep the IMF program and its austerity measures in place. With many tenures as prime minister, he is seen by voters as part of the old guard responsible for Sri Lanka’s economic plunge. But Wickremesinghe has taken credit for pulling Sri Lanka out of extreme economic instability.

Two other front-runners have called for a renegotiation of the IMF deal.

Opposition candidate Sajith Premadasa leads a centrist group that broke away in 2020 from Wickremesinghe’s party. The former minister, whose father was assassinated during his presidency, is campaigning on lowering taxes and the cost of living by renegotiating the IMF bailout. He previously lost to the now-deposed Rajapaksa.

Perhaps the key challenger is Dissanayake, heading a long-buried Marxist socialist party that was involved in armed uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s. Rising from the ashes, the party is now leading a leftist coalition that is tapping into popular anger by promising to renegotiate with the IMF, fight against corruption and usher in a social revolution.

“We want to ensure that there are more social protection measures for the poorer,” Amarasuriya of the leftist coalition told The Washington Post.

The nephew of the deposed president, Namal Rajapaksa, is the latest dynast of Sri Lanka’s most powerful political family to run for office, but is not seen as a front-runner.

Who will win?

Analysts say this election will be incredibly tight. Some early surveys show Dissanayake in the lead, with many supporters among the protesters who stormed the presidential palace in 2022.

Foreign Minister Ali Sabry, a supporter of incumbent Wickremesinghe, told The Post that the IMF program was a well-thought-out agreement.

“Many parties have promised renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF, but I don’t think that is a realistic goal or possibility,” he said. “Discontinuity or even the specter of it would have serious repercussions.”

Farisz reported from Colombo, Sri Lanka.

previous coverage

• Sri Lanka has more women voters than men but no female presidential candidates