Asia-Pacific
AnalysisSouth Korea faces 'Sophie's choice' over sending weapons to Ukraine
By
The Washington Post April 14, 2023
Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Min Joo Kim
The Washington Post April 14, 2023
Two South Korean soldiers clear their weapons at an airfield in Yongin, South Korea, Aug. 29, 2016. (Ken Scar/U.S. Army)
SEOUL — For decades after signing an armistice in 1953 to end combat in the Korean War, South Korea has been producing and stockpiling a huge supply of artillery shells in case it has to fight North Korea again.
Now, as Ukraine burns through its ammunition and faces a critical shortage in its war with Russia, Kyiv's Western allies are intensifying their focus on South Korea to directly contribute, despite Seoul's policy that bans such support for countries at war.
Leaked U.S. confidential documents that purportedly show South Korea grappling with the U.S. request to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine have renewed pressure on President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration to supply lethal weapons to the war effort.
Seoul has repeatedly said it would stick to its export control policy while finding other ways to support Ukraine, wary of the impact on trade with Russia and the potential that Moscow would retaliate by helping North Korea advance its nuclear and weapons program.
The disclosure comes at a precarious moment in U.S.-South Korean relations, as President Biden prepares to host Yoon at a state dinner in Washington later this month. The leaders are expected to reinforce the U.S.-South Korean alliance as they mark its 70th anniversary this year.
Since taking office last year, Yoon, a conservative, has drawn South Korea closer to the United States. His administration has tried to play down the significance of the leak, calling its contents "altered" and "untrue," even as the opposition calls for answers from the Biden administration.
Although Yoon is more predisposed to the alliance with the United States than his liberal predecessor, the North Korea problem has so far outweighed all other considerations. He has maintained that weapons exports are a matter of "sovereignty" for South Korea.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Tuesday called on Biden to broker an agreement that would allow South Korea to transfer 155-millimeter shells that he said Ukraine desperately needs. Western allies are working to produce or procure more of the shells, which are used in many battlefield weapons including howitzers, for Ukraine.
"We spoke to South Korea about this, the weapon delivery and delivery of ammunition," Morawiecki said in an interview with the New York Times. "But I don't think that this is going to be possible without the intervention of the United States. South Korea is fearful of Russian reaction and Chinese reaction."
Morawiecki called on Biden to provide "some kind of shelter, some kind of security guarantee" for South Korea.
But there is a limit to what an ally can do for Seoul when it is hit with economic and diplomatic revenge from Russia, said Kwon Ki-chang, former South Korean ambassador to Ukraine. Kwon said the Yoon administration should provide Kyiv with lethal weapons to take a stand against the invasion, but said Seoul faces real threats of retaliation.
"South Korea now faces a Sophie's choice of deciding which child to sacrifice," he said. "Value-based diplomacy comes at a big toll for South Korea, but we need to step up to join the allies' efforts for Ukraine."
South Korea's Foreign Trade Act bans the export of arms except for a peaceful purpose, and bans the re-export to third-party countries without Seoul's permission.
The country's Defense Acquisition Program Administration regulates which exports are allowed under the law. It is possible to lift certain re-export licensing requirements through administrative or regulatory action, but more substantive changes would require legislative changes, said Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow and defense expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. The export of lethal weapons would require permission from the South Korean government.
Instead, Seoul has been sending other support to Ukraine, including pledging $100 million in humanitarian aid. Last year, South Korean defense companies struck their biggest arms export deal to date with Poland, including K2 battle tanks and K-9 self-propelled howitzers, enabling Poland to send its own equipment on to Ukraine and South Korea to maintain it was not exporting weapons to a war zone.
"If there is a fear, the fear is about the expansion of Russia-North Korea relations beyond the typical rhetoric of being allies in the trenches," such as providing advanced technologies that would help Pyongyang's weapons program, Go said. "The concern in Seoul is that Russia could try to upgrade the relationship [with North Korea] to something more significant, so they're trying to avoid that scenario."
In addition, North Korea has repeatedly emphasized a "new Cold War" to use the war in Ukraine and U.S.-China competition to its advantage, said Lee Ho-ryoung, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, a government think tank in Seoul. Pyongyang is drawing closer to Beijing and Moscow, which have helped shield it from additional U.N. sanctions in response to its ballistic missile tests.
"It may seem like the Russian war has nothing to do with the Korean Peninsula, but that's not the case," Lee said.
The war is expected to bleed into 2024, according to a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment leaked online and obtained by The Washington Post. Ukraine is firing about 7,700 shells per day, or roughly one every six seconds, a Ukrainian official told The Post. Russia is firing more, and may also be running low, The Post reported.
A big part of the reason South Korea has been facing pressure to supply weapons directly to Ukraine is because its weapons are made to be compatible with standards set by NATO,, so it could serve up sought-after weapons fast, industry analysts say.
The coveted shells are regularly used in South Korean military live-fire drills for potential conflict with the North. They are produced by Poongsan Corp., an ammunition manufacturer that was relatively unknown until South Korea began drawing attention for its potential for arms support for Ukraine.
Last year, the U.S. government had negotiated a purchase of 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition from South Korea. Seoul said the end user is designed to be the United States, despite a Wall Street Journal report that cited a U.S. official saying the shells would be bound for Ukraine.
One of the leaked documents, purportedly produced by the U.S. government, shows that South Korea's National Security Council in early March "grappled" with a U.S. request that the country send artillery ammunition to Ukraine. Seoul was concerned that the request could anger Moscow, the report said, citing signals intelligence.
Another leaked document marked "secret," which appears to have originated from the U.S. government, shows a transfer calendar for South Korean ammunition. The document states that 153,600 rounds of 155mm shells are scheduled to be airlifted to Ukraine in 41 days. The document is dated Feb. 27, just days ahead of the document portraying the South Korean NSC's internal discussion about the issue.
South Korea reportedly reached an agreement last month to "lend" 500,000 rounds of the ammunition to the United States to backfill its stockpile after sending ammunition to Ukraine rather than selling it, according to a report Wednesday by South Korean newspaper Dong-a Ilbo.
Such a plan would minimize the possibility of South Korean shells being used in Ukraine, according to the report, which cited unnamed government sources. Under such an arrangement, the United States would give the same number of shells or other similar weapons back to South Korea at a later date, experts say.
Officials from South Korea's Defense Ministry and the presidential office have declined to comment on the leaked documents or the report about loaning shells.
Choi Gi-il, chairman of the military studies department at Sangji University, said it is appropriate for South Korea to lend the shells because the country needs to maintain its own reserves.
"South Korea, due to its armistice regime with the North, maintains a large reserve and superior production capacity for ammunitions," Choi said. "Still technically at war, it has to keep its own reserves above a certain level. That's why Seoul could not but 'lend' the ammunition to the U.S."