The Air Force Falcons face off against New Mexico, Oct. 12, 2024. (U.S. Air Force Academy)
(Tribune News Service) — Air Force has reached the halfway point of what is — or at this point should be viewed as — a rebuilding season.
A mix of inexperience complicated by injuries clearly impacted the Falcons (1-5, 0-3 Mountain West) as they are off to their worst start since also starting 1-5 in 2013 — a season that saw them finish 2-10.
Air Force has lost all five of its games against FBS opponents, all by double-digit margins, and have been outscored 95-33 in the second half of games.
Here’s a look at the first half and a look ahead to what awaits this team down the stretch.
MVP: Cade Harris, jr., slot receiver
Asked to explain Harris’ strong start to the season, coach Troy Calhoun pointed to his experience.
Harris, Camby Goff and Payton Zdroik are the only offensive or defensive players on this year’s team that were part of the squad two years ago.
“I just think it helps when you’ve played, and he has,” Calhoun said of Harris, who leads Air Force in rushing yards (193), catches (11) and touchdowns (four). “He does have good instincts. He has good ball skills. He processes well, so you’re able to move him around a good bit. He’s just not a guy where you say, alright, he’s always the outside receiver or he’s always attached to the tackle. There’s formation flexibility just because he handles football well.”
Harris said the experience has helped him most in adjusting to the speed of the game and confidence. That was on display at New Mexico when he faced a one-on-one situation on the perimeter and had the patience and self-assurance to pause before making a move, leaving the defender falling down, as he gained 24 yards.
“I don’t know if I’d say confidence. My legs just weren’t working as well as they did, but I appreciate the compliment,” Harris said when asked about the play. “But just getting familiar with the game and how people move definitely helps in making moves and making guys miss.”
Key stat: 36
That’s the number of first-time starters the Falcons have used this year — 16 more than any other team in the nation.
The opener saw the Falcons use 16 first-time starters, which was to be expected after losing 16 starters from last year. That 20 more have been utilized in the five games that have followed shows just how much injuries have played a role.
Only three positions on defense and five on offense have seen the same player start all six games.
Telling stat: 198.3
That’s the rushing yards per game, which ranks 36th nationally. This for a program that led the nation in that statistic from 2020-2022, was second last year and has finished outside the top 10 only once since 1986 — that coming in that 2-10 2013 season when they were 13th.
This can be traced to the growing pains of the offensive line, struggles at quarterback and the lack of an emerging standout in the backfield. The impact has clearly been felt by the defense, which is playing an average of five more snaps per game than it did last year (and 12 more than it did in 2022).
Last year opponents averaged five fewer first downs per game than Air Force, this year they are making 2.4 more per contest.
What stakes remain?
Air Force’s loss to Navy knocked it out of contention for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. It’s three losses in conference haven’t technically knocked it out of a chance to play in the Mountain West championship game, but that hope is all but gone.
There’s still a shot at a bowl game, which would require a 6-6 record. With games against Colorado State, Fresno State and Oregon State remaining at home and at Army and San Diego State among the road trips, a 5-1 finish seems highly unlikely barring a quick and massive turnaround.
Looking ahead
If this week’s depth chart holds up, there will be eight sophomores, seven juniors and seven seniors starting for the Falcons against Colorado State on Saturday. Another six sophomores and nine juniors occupy the No. 2 spot on the depth chart.
The team has narrowed its quarterback search to a pair of sophomores in Quentin Hayes and Josh Johnson. Sophomores Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner and Dallas Daley has shown promise on defense. And a pair of sophomores — local product Alec Falk from Palmer Ridge and Nathan Elwood — have worked to the top of the depth chart on the offensive line.
Yes, it would be nice for the fan base to see the winning streak against Colorado State stretched to eight games and to play spoiler by winning at Army. But it might also benefit the team in the long term to start giving the playing time edge to players who can use this season to gain experience.
That 2013, as bad as it was, was followed by a 10-3 season in 2014. Air Force’s final six games might be used to set the foundation for a similar turnaround.
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