Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old fanatical Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is apparently seriously ill, triggering internal discussions about a potential successor. It couldn’t come at a worse time for the theocratic Iranian regime.

In less than a year, the Israelis have decapitated the Iranian regime’s key Middle East proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. They assassinated the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran, and killed the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a personal friend of Khamenei. The mullahs have seen their arms-length war with Israel arrive at their own doorstep, with a series of direct Israeli airstrikes on military sites and missile factories inside Iran. The election of Donald Trump, known for his hawkish attitude toward Iran, as president of their arch enemy the United States, must have felt like the final straw.

Khamenei has presided over the virtual collapse of his tyrannical regime. A combination of warmongering, nuclear ambitions, maladministration, corruption and incompetence, together with tough Western sanctions, has collapsed the economy. There is widespread poverty. His elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been listed as a terrorist organization in America and Canada and there are demands for its blacklisting in the European Union and the U.K.

The IRGC’s extra-territorial Quds Force, which has fomented conflict and terrorism across the Middle East and worldwide, witnessed the assassination of its revered leader — Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, in a drone strike in 2020, ordered by then-President Trump. As Supreme Leader, Khamenei has endorsed thousands of arrests and arbitrary executions of dissidents at home and abroad. He has ordered brutal crackdowns on repeated nationwide uprisings and protests. His legacy of implementing the toxic philosophy of velãyat-e faqih, or absolute clerical rule, has allowed him as Supreme Leader to justify every horror, every medieval torture, every public execution, every act of terror, as the “will of God.” His imminent demise will be welcomed by millions.

But now the debate has begun on who can be Khamenei’s successor. On Nov. 7, the ailing ayatollah met with 60 members of his so-called Assembly of Experts to discuss a possible successor. The Assembly of Experts has the responsibility under the Iranian constitution to select the nation’s Supreme Leader. The meeting, although secret, was widely reported in the Iranian media, causing panic among the mullahs, who feared the impending downfall of their hated regime.

The three most likely contenders for the role are Khamenei’s 55-year-old younger son Mojtaba; Alireza Arafi, head of the seminaries and former leader of Al-Mustafa International University; and Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, a radical cleric.

Mojtaba Khamenei followed in his father’s footsteps to become a cleric. He now teaches theology at the holy city of Qom Seminary. He joined the IRGC after finishing secondary school, serving during the last phase of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. He has built strong links with the leaders of the IRGC and, working in his father’s office, has played a central role in shaping the regime’s regional strategy with the development of Hezbollah and other Shiite militias as key proxy allies.

Following widespread protests over vote-rigging in the 2009 presidential elections, Mojtaba Khamenei led the crackdown on anti-government demonstrations. He was later accused of embezzling state funds by former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It is rumored that the Assembly of Experts agreed on his candidacy at their meeting, although there will be consternation among some mullahs that his succession will create a family dynasty, which is contrary to the principles of the Islamic Republic.

The second contender is Alireza Arafi, 65, virtually unknown outside of clerical circles in Iran. After years of theological study he achieved the title of mujtahid, an Islamic scholar who can derive legal rulings from the primary sources of Sacred Law. He is a fluent linguist in Arabic and English. Arafi has risen in prominence thanks to successive appointments by Khamenei, who, impressed by his loyalty, handpicked him for promotion, culminating in his elevation in 2019 to the 12-man Guardian Council, Iran’s ultimate filter that can veto any government policy, or political candidate. He is a vocal supporter of the IRGC, which apart from Khamenei himself, has few other supporters among the regime’s mullahs.

The third contender is Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, 63, a zealous revolutionary Shiite cleric and perhaps the most overtly radical of all the aspirants. A supporter of the regime’s aggressive warmongering and secretive nuclear program, Mirbagheri’s ferocious anti-Western views and alleged support for the shadowy murders of dissident writers and anti-regime critics, merge seamlessly with his defense of acid attacks on young women who fail to wear their hijabs properly. Since 2022, he has said it is not enough to simply punish the girls who let their headscarves slip or anyone serving them as customers. Rather, the state must go after everyone in society promoting the end of the hijab or modest clothing. Blaming social media for spreading Western influences, he said on one occasion: “The internet is the devil’s paraphernalia.”

Recently speaking on state television about the Middle East, he said: “God has a great plan for the people of the world and that is war between the believers and infidels. This began with Creation and will continue to the end of the world, and victory belongs to the faithful. That is a certainty.” Mirbagheri is a sayyid, or purported descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, and is allowed to wear a black turban. He is a member of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts.

Whoever emerges as the successor to Khamenei, they will not hold office for long. After 45 years of repressive tyranny, conflict, terrorism and corruption, 85 million Iranians have had enough. Iran is a bubbling cauldron ready to explode. Resistance units of the main democratic opposition movement are growing in strength and numbers across the nation. The next uprising will be the last one for the mullahs.

Struan Stevenson is the coordinator of the Campaign for Iran Change (CiC). He was a member of the European Parliament representing Scotland (1999-2014), president of the Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iraq (2009-2014) and chairman of the Friends of a Free Iran Intergroup (2004-2014). He is an author and international lecturer on the Middle East.