If there was a single strategic turning point in the 2024 presidential election, it could have been the disastrous decision of the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris to take a pass on the Al Smith Dinner in New York. Since the now-legendary 1960 race between Sen. John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard M. Nixon, this singular event has generally been considered obligatory.

The only other presidential nominee to duck the dinner was ill-fated Walter Mondale, President Jimmy Carter’s vice president and hapless opponent of incumbent President Ronald Reagan in 1984. In both cases, the losing nominee gave the impression, justified or not, that a difficult confrontation with a powerful political personality was being avoided.

There are good reasons for the importance and visibility of the Smith Dinner. Ethnic and religious identities remain important in our politics, arguably especially in more traditional Northeastern states. This most practical consideration is an important factor in this event being generally regarded as obligatory.

The 1960 dinner provided a tremendous boost to Kennedy’s candidacy and campaign. He remained poorly defined for a large share of the American electorate, difficult to believe but true from the perspective of 2024. His Catholicism was a source of political controversy and had to be overcome to secure the Democratic nomination, and then the election.

Gov. Al Smith of New York was the Democratic Party’s nominee to run against Republican Herbert Hoover in 1928. Smith was the first Roman Catholic nominated for the presidency by a major political party in the U.S.

He was buried in a landslide for the enormously popular Hoover, and probably anyone nominated by the Democrats in that year would have suffered the same fate. However, religion was front and center as a major factor, and Smith was the target of relentless ugly, vicious anti-Catholic bigotry.

At the 1960 dinner, Kennedy deployed his subtle sense of humor. He congratulated the Catholic leadership and sponsor of the event for bringing together two politicians who were intense rivals and competitors with an uneasy relationship in that campaign year — Nixon and Gov. Nelson Rockefeller of New York. Those two had been rivals for a time for the 1960 Republican nomination, until Nixon outmaneuvered Rockefeller and sealed impressive victory as the party’s choice.

Following Kennedy’s election victory, narrow in the popular vote but decisive in the Electoral College, Catholicism ceased to be a major issue in American electoral politics.

In 2024, Harris had no time for Smith’s legacy but she did manage to appear on “The View,” “Call Her Daddy” and other venues with overwhelmingly female audiences. She played it safe, and you do not become president of the United States by playing it safe.

Another major factor is organizational. For years, Republicans generally led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky have devoted sustained attention and resources to state governments. In 2024, the party expanded on an already substantial lead in that realm.

This year, total Republican state legislators increased from 55% to 55.25%, control of state legislative chambers remained steady at 57 while Democrats lost three, from 41 down to 38. Governorships held steady in partisan division, 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats.

Another important factor, ignored by the partisan Democratic mainstream legacy media, is the way Harris became the nominee. Party barons ousted President Joe Biden and inserted her, with no primary votes, no internal competition.

Regarding public policies, we can expect the incoming Trump administration to give priority to defense and national security. This reflects a strong quality of the Republican Party that can be traced back to the Reagan administration. Expect intense debate on Senate confirmation of senior officials.

Arthur I. Cyr is author of “After the Cold War.”

previous coverage

• When every election is the ‘most important election of our lives’