At a time of acute global disorder, with America’s adversaries investing heavily in their air forces, developing and procuring America’s next generation of aircraft is vital for our national security. The recent comments by the U.S. Air Force’s leadership signaling that the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program appears to be in peril is a troubling development at a particularly inopportune time.

Production of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft is well underway, and the U.S. military is already considering the next generation of combat aircraft to replace the aging fleet of F-22 Raptors. NGAD is that program.

At the Air & Space Forces Association meeting in mid-June, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said, “Well, we’re going to have to make those choices, make those decisions across the landscape,” in response to a question about the program. He added, “That’s going to probably play out in the next couple of years — by this ’26 Program Objective Memorandum cycle … so that is, those are things in work.” The less than straightforward support for the NGAD is concerning, particularly as the Air Force was supposed to commence soliciting proposals this year.

Allvin was not reluctant to support the NGAD program because of any design problems or prototypes that have been developed. The actual reason comes down to dollars and cents.

It is very alarming that the reason why NGAD is in jeopardy comes down to budgetary constraints by Congress’ 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act. The U.S. Air Force needs to be constantly developing new systems and platforms to carry out missions successfully in an increasingly fragmented and violent global disorder.

The F-35 warplane, despite its technological advances and price tag, has more criticism than accolades, with one analyst describing it as a “part-time fighter jet.” Hence, there is a demand to develop a new warplane for the Air Force that is more trustworthy and reliable. If modifications need to occur to current designs, that is perfectly acceptable, but NGAD cannot be scrapped and begin from zero to make bean counters in Congress happy.

The Air Force wants up to 200 NGAD aircraft, which are expected to start replacing the F22s by 2030. This makes NGAD the most expensive and visible program in the Air Force for the second half of the decade.

The price of a single F-35 varies by model, with the conventional F-35A at around $82 million. The sixth-generation NGAD could cost as much as $300 million each, with the service already budgeting $28.48 billion for 2025-2029 for the development and initial production of the NGAD. Perhaps the expensive blunders and delays regarding the F-35 make policymakers hesitant to endorse and pay for NGAD.

In a May 2023 service news release, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall explained, “The NGAD Platform is a vital element of the Air Dominance family of systems, which represents a generational leap in technology over the F-22, which it will replace.”

The service has ambitious goals for NGAD, including a loyal wingman drone flying with the aircraft, called the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. The Air Force wants it to fly alongside the warplane, which can be artificial intelligence or human-controlled.

To put the situation in the global context, other militaries and defense industries are already working on their sixth-generation fighters — allies and adversaries alike. The U.K. Ministry of Defence and British defense companies like BAE Systems and Leonardo are developing the Tempest Future Combat Air System (FCAS) aircraft, which is expected to enter service by the mid-2030s. The project differs from the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which teams up with industries from the U.K., Italy and Japan to develop a fighter by 2035.

Mainland European countries and their defense companies have their own version of the FCAS. Defense giants Airbus, Indra and other companies across France, Germany and Spain are developing a next-generation warplane. This “system of systems,” crewed warplanes “will work together with Unmanned Remote Carriers — all connected to other systems” via the “Combat Cloud.”

Meanwhile, China is developing its own aircraft, which, according to the state-run Global Times, will have “open architecture that allows fast development, fast production and fast upgrades like [their fifth generation] J-20” fighter.

Moscow is also keen to demonstrate that its aerospace industry remains robust after two years of war and international sanctions. Russian defense companies are developing the Mikoyan MiG-41 sixth-generation fighter to replace the Mikoyan MiG-31. The program’s current status is unclear, though media reports explain that the design is already completed, and realistically, production could start by the end of the decade. However, that schedule could change depending on the future of the war in Ukraine.

During the lengthy conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. military enjoyed complete air superiority and control of the air space. However, the war in Ukraine (at least in the early stages of the conflict) saw several dogfights between Ukrainian and Russian fighter jets. After years without air-to-air combat in global conflicts, military commanders and analysts alike are micro-analyzing Ukraine to learn the future of air warfare, potentially for a conflict between the U.S. and China or between NATO and Russia.

The future of NGAD will require timely decisions about the program to resolve budgetary issues, strategic posture and whether some savings can be made by cutting orders or upgrades on the unpopular F-35. To keep flying high, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. government need a long-term strategic vision, not narrow-minded short-term budget hawkery.

Wilder Alejandro Sánchez is a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who monitors defense and security, geopolitical, and trade issues across the Western Hemisphere, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.