DAND, Afghanistan — With relatively stable security and competent local officials, Dand is the top candidate in Kandahar to move toward Afghan control this year. Yet leaders are avoiding the word “transition,” saying it’s politically loaded and sends the wrong message.

“ ‘Transition’ has become an enormous concept,” Ben Moeling, head of the Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team, said. “It represents the culmination of progress in Afghanistan. We don’t want to carry that weight.”

Dand, a bastion of calm among its volatile neighbors, has strong leadership, from the village level to the district governor. The lieutenant colonel in charge here is pushing to have the Afghan National Army take over control of security by March, and senior military and civilian leaders are searching for specifics that can be applied to the rest of the province, which is much further behind in security and governance.

“I wouldn’t call it a model district, but we’re pretty darn close,” said Canadian Brig. Gen. Dean Milner, commander of Task Force Kandahar.

Brig. Gen. Kenneth Dahl, who heads up stabilization in Regional Command-South, said Dand’s progress makes it a prime district where Afghans can take lead responsibility.

Leaders don’t want to attract too much attention from those in Kabul and Washington who are ready to jump at any indicator of success as heralding the end of the effort in the country.

“We’re trying to be very conservative about what’s possible to achieve,” said Henry Ensher, the top civilian for RC-South. “Under-promise and over-deliver are great words to live by.”

It’s a lesson learned from the public relations disaster of the Marjah campaign last spring in Helmand province.

The military operation was trumpeted a success before it even ended, and Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former top commander in Afghanistan, promised “government in a box,” a phrase that now makes civilian leaders shudder.

Nearly a year later, there is very little government to speak of in Marjah, and the Taliban has had a resurgence.

Leaders don’t want to repeat those mistakes in Kandahar.

“We’re being careful not to raise expectations,” Moeling said. “Everyone wants to see evidence of success.”

The Army has ditched the “transition” label also in part because it causes the Afghans to panic, thinking money and support will dry up.

Dand’s district governor is “absolutely petrified it means we just go away,” said Lt. Col. John Paganini, commander of 1st Squadron, 71st Cavalry Regiment, 10th Mountain Division, which controls Dand.

Military commanders prefer “transfer” or the counterinsurgency manual term of “thinning.” The 1-71 Cav uses “Afghan hold.”

The military anticipates that coalition troops in Dand will be able to pull back this spring, and the Afghan security forces will be operating on their own.

Paganini said much of the northeastern part of the district is already secured solely by Afghan troops.

Moeling said March is a good target date, but “we need to be realistic about it. The most important thing is that it’s irreversible.”

Leaders in Kandahar say they won’t start to have answers about the stability of much of the province until the thick of the fighting season this summer, and they likely won’t draw conclusions until it comes to an end in the fall.

Still, they are cautiously optimist about Dand.

Ensher says that in terms of governance, “the progress is really fragile.”

“Are we talking about a well-developed institution? No. A particular guy has demonstrated capability,” he said.

The Dand district governor has been the target of several assassination attempts, and should he leave or be killed, the coalition isn’t confident that the government would be able to stand.

“That’s the primary vulnerability,” Ensher said.

mccloskeym@stripes.osd.mil

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